Blog

College & NFL Notes 11/15 - 11/16

Here is what I will be watching for this weekend:

(45th) (#1 Mississippi State at #5 Alabama) – Mississippi State cannot afford to lose this game and make the College Football playoffs.  There is a conception that they would be fine but look what the committee has done.  Miss State has the 45th ranked schedule in the country in terms of strength of schedule.   Oregon just jumped Florida State last week, with Oregon ranking 22nd and Florida State ranking 51st.  The committee has already punished Baylor and Ohio State for weak schedules, Miss State can’t afford to lose a game and drop into that group. 

 

(114) (#9 Auburn at #15 Georgia) – This game may be about who can be the first to 45 points.  Georgia’s has won 6 of their last 7 games, but their defense continues to be just as shaky.  Over the last three games, the Bulldogs have given up 34 points on average and 253 rushing yards per game.  Brutal.  Auburn’s last four games defensively have been just as bad as they have given up 36 points per game on average and surrendered 486 yards defensively on average.  To get the picture, Auburn’s 486 yard average on defense would rank them 114th defensively on the season in all of college football.

 

(2.5) (#3 Florida State at Miami) – How is this game so close?  Florida State is undefeated for the second straight year and continues to feast on the ACC.  Last year FSU beat Miami 41-14.  So what’s changed?  All the metrics show that Florida State is a good team but not a great one.  They are 104th in the nation in rushing.  They are 33rd in the nation in points on defense.  And they currently have the 51st ranked strength of schedule in the country.  Miami is a good team playing at home against another good team.  They’re not playing against the 2013 National Champions.

 

(120.1) Eagles at Packers – When Aaron Rodgers told the Packers fan base to “relax”, he must have known what was coming.  The Packers are 5-1 since the relax moment, and Rodgers has thrown 20 touchdowns vs just 2 interceptions.  Rodgers already holds the record for QB rating for a season, in fact he has two of the top three in history.  His rating of 120.1 leads the NFL and will allow him to challenge for his own record this year.  If the Eagles are going to slow this things down, they’ll have to force a turnover or two…just as New Orleans forced both of his interceptions during this streak.

 

Patriots at Colts – Earlier this season I called Andrew Luck the most incredible bus driver in the NFL.  That was because over his first two seasons, Luck took care of the football and made plays to win games in the 2nd half.  Of Luck’s first 32 regular season starts, he’s had just 4 games where he threw three touchdowns or more.  THAT HAS CHANGED.  Luck has thrown three touchdowns or more in 6 of 9 games this season.  His game has jumped to another level.  Tom Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in his last four games, this should be a fun ball game.

The Georgia Bulldogs Controversial Playoff Run

I’m not crazy.

I’m not on or off any meds.

I’m not drunk (right now).

Having admitted to this, I can tell you that Georgia is not dead in the race to make the College Football Playoffs.  They are not in a great position, but they are not dead.  Before you decide to stop reading this and chalk it up to Bulldog propaganda, know that I’m strictly using logic based on what I have studied from the College Football Playoff Committee.

Let me start by showing you this from the Committee website:

 

The Committee clearly points out that championships won will not only be the heaviest of weighted criteria, but will also be used when two similar teams are under discussion.

As of now, no one has won anything yet.

The Committee also clearly points out that strength of schedule will also receive heavy consideration.  Again, this is based on the established criteria for the committee of experts.  When you take a look at the current rankings, you can clearly see how much strength of schedule matters to the committee.

For example, Oregon has jumped Florida State and now sits with the 2nd overall ranking.  Why?  That has happened in part because Oregon currently has the 22nd ranked strength of schedule rating in college football this year.  Florida State is currently 51st. 

But what about Mississippi State you ask?  Mississippi State has played the 45th ranked schedule leading into their game against Alabama.  This is because they took four “gimme” games against Southern Miss, UAB, UT-Martin, and South Alabama.  On the other hand, Mississippi State is 2-0 vs teams who have a top 10 strength of schedule ranking (Auburn-LSU) and 4-0 overall vs the top 30.  If they were to lose to Alabama on Saturday, I would expect them to suffer the consequences of the soft schedule.

When you look at the Committee rankings, you constantly see how strength of schedule is used to reward or deny status in the rankings.  Shouldn’t Baylor be ahead of TCU in the rankings based on their head-to-head victory?  Not according to strength of schedule, where TCU’s schedule ranks 23rd while Baylor ranks 55th.

Why can’t Ohio State get more love?  Their schedule is currently ranked 54th in the country, with only one game and one win against a top 30 team in strength of schedule.  Shouldn’t an 8-1 Nebraska team be ahead of a two-loss Georgia team?  Sorry Cornhuskers, their schedule rank of 74th is killing them in the rankings.

I write all of this to explain why the Georgia Bulldogs are still alive for the college football playoffs.  Georgia is surprisingly alive for their conference championship.  That’s the biggest key in all of this.  A win against Auburn and a loss by Missouri in any of their final three conference games will send the Bulldogs to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.  Georgia also currently has the 13th ranked schedule in the country in the key strength of schedule criteria.  With games against Auburn, Georgia Tech, and an SEC West champion, that will stay strong.

For the teams in front of Georgia, this scenario is not the case.  #6 Arizona State must still play #14 Arizona, for the right to play #2 Oregon for the PAC 12 Championship.  #5 Alabama must still play #1 Mississippi State and #9 Auburn, with only one of the three getting a chance to win the SEC.  #11 UCLA can still play for their conference title, but would still have to deal with Southern Cal and Oregon.  Basically, if you have won your conference and played a tough schedule you’re still alive.

So for Georgia, why not?  They’re still alive, just barely.

Game Review - Falcons vs Bucs

The Falcons needed a win in the worst way.  Beating a one win Tampa team 27-17 was just what this team needed to silence the critics (including myself) for a week.  The discussion has recently turned from whether Falcons Coach Mike Smith can keep his job to who is going to replace him.  I certainly don't believe much of this falls on Coach Smith, as his victory over Tampa now runs his regular season record to 7-1 after the bye week.    

While a well-placed bye week can help a team with health, one of the more overlooked aspects of a bye week is the chance for a coaching staff to self-scout.  The Falcons used their bye week to take a look at what they do well, what they don't, and what they can use the time to improve on.     

Here is what I took away from this game review:

  • The Falcons offensive line is getting healthier, but more importantly, getting more cohesive.  They were better in the run game than they'd been in a couple of months.
  • The Falcons defense was more creative with their blitz. 
  • A few key defensive veterans played their best games of the season.  That was the case with edge rushers Osi Umenyiora and Kroy Biermann.

Let's take a look at a few plays:

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1st and 15 - 8:13 ATL 25 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

The Falcons did a very good job of setting the edge and limiting the Buccaneers running game.  On the play, OLB Kroy Biermann attacks TE Brandon Myers on the snap.  Myers was tasked with kicking Biermann out of the play.  Biermann quickly establishes himself in the Buccaneers backfield and forces RB Bobby Rainey to bounce the play outside.  The play loses five yards.

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2nd and 25 - 7:15 ATL 40 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

It's been frustrating to watch the Falcons continue to give important snaps to veteran players that will not be here once this team is ready to compete again.  But the simple truth is that these players and their experience gives this team the best chance to win.  On this play which resulted in a sack-fumble, Osi Umenyiora attacks an overmatched Oniel Cousins.  Cousins does not get his inside arm on Umenyiora fast enough on the play.  This leaves the inside rush exposed.  Umenyiora quickly feels the approach and blows past Cousins to make the play.

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2nd and 10 - 5:13 ATL 31 yard line (1st QT) 3-0 Buccaneers Lead:

The Falcons offensive line used the bye week to get healthier for sure, but also to work on their communication.  From the game film, you could see them do a better job of diagnosing what was in front of them.  On this play, the Falcons accomplish a task we haven't seen over the past few months.  They pulled multiple blockers on the play and setup RB Steven Jackson for a nine yard run.

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 From another camera angle, you can see how Stone, Matthews, and DiMarco opened up a running lane into the Buccaneers secondary.

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3rd and 3 - 14:31 TAMPA 24 yard line (2nd QT) 7-3 Falcons Lead:

Here's an area where self-scouting proved effective for the Falcons.  The defense has attempted to blitz multiple times this year by disguising who was coming up front.  On film, you could always see them pack the line of scrimmage than drop players out on the snap.  On this play, the Falcons chose to disguise their blitz by showing six blitzers at the line of scrimmage.  On the snap, S Ishmael comes on a blitz as the furthest player away from the line of scrimmage.  The Falcons immediately take away the hot routes on the play and force a 3rd down incompletion.

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3rd and 10 - :53 ATL 22 yard line (2nd QT) 10-3 Falcons Lead:

CB Robert Alford has gotten his fair share of criticism because of his play of late.  Earlier in this game, he was called for holding on WR Vincent Jackson after he lost him down field despite safety help.  On this play, WR Mike Evans scored the game tying touchdown just before half time.  What's clear from the film (and hopefully this picture) Evans did in fact push off on Alford.  Evans fully extended his arm in order to create the space he needed to catch the touchdown.

-los