Blog

The Day After - NFC South

  • What a difference one win can make.  During the Falcons five game losing streak, the team wasn’t inventing new ways to lose.  They were consistently losing each week with a faltering offensive line and a lack of pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  One win against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers at least changed the story for a week.  The Falcons were able to record four sacks on the day and the offensive line was able to keep QB Matt Ryan clean enough to put up 27 points.  While it’s premature to talk about the Falcons as a division contender, they are still 3-0 against the rest of the NFC South.  Do they have a chance to be the best of the worst division in football?  Sure.  But let’s talk about that if they can earn another road win against the Panthers.

 

  • The first place Saints have to be one of the most confusing teams in the NFL.  I was under the belief that they were a team who was primed to make a run in November.  After beating the Packers at home and getting a road win at Carolina, the Saints looked ready to take control of the NFC South.  But then the San Francisco 49ers happened.  The Saints, who had won their last 11 home games, suddenly find themselves at 4-5 with the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers up next.  They look like the best team in a bad division but I believe they are probably the 8th best team in the conference.  The turnover prone Saints once again lost that battle in finishing -2 against the 49ers.  The final turnover was obviously the difference in the game.  I also can’t ever recall anyone being called for offensive pass interference in an end-of-game Hail Mary situation. 

 

  • I believe that Tampa coach Lovie Smith’s job is safe.  His team is at least playing hard (unlike his former team in Chicago) but there are some aspects of the team that are more troubling than the 1-8 record.  The Bucs are sloppy when it comes to penalties, ranking 10th in the league in penalties on the season.  Smith’s team can’t be talent needy and sloppy.  It’s like the movie Casino.  You can have one or the other, but you can’t have both.  Having both leads to a 1-8 record.  Smith currently has a four year deal with a fifth year option.  Moving on from him will cost the Buccaneers 15 million over the next three years.  That’s why I believe he’s the coach in Tampa no matter how sloppy this thing gets. 

College & NFL Notes 11/8 - 11/9

Here is what's up for this weekend's action:

  • Notre Dame @ Arizona State (Elimination Game) – This is only the 3rd time this year that Notre Dame has had to play a game away from South Bend.  Despite being on the road, this is the biggest toss up game of the day.  The Irish are just 1-1 vs Top 25 teams, having narrowly beaten Stanford at home and narrowly lost to Florida State on the road.  Arizona State is 3-1 vs Top 25 teams including close wins over Utah and Southern Cal.  Their only blemish was that route at the hands of UCLA. The Notre Dame defense has faltered of late, giving up nearly 38 points per game in their last three games.  As for the Sun Devils, their d is improving – 12 points per game in last 3.

 

  • #7 Kansas State @ #6 TCU. (Elimination game)  This is the best polar opposite game of the day.  K-State is the primary keeper of defensive play in the Big 12, as they are 12th in the country in points allowed.  But they are a middle of the road offensive team as they rank 50th in passing yards and 58th in rushing yards…despite that they are scoring 38 points per game.  TCU has been a guaranteed 30 points each weekend, their point totals at home have been: 48, 30, 37, 42, and 82.  But injuries will be huge, as TCU’s starting running back and both receivers are dealing with injuries that could keep them out of this game.

 

  • Michigan State @ Ohio State (Elimination game) The Big 10 is so spare right now, that basically this conference has become Sparty and Buckeye…and then everyone else.  Michigan State heads to Columbus having not lost to a Big 10 team since November of 2012.  Their last two losses dating back to 2012 are to Oregon and Notre Dame, that’s it.

 

  • Oregon @ Utah: The last regular season hurdle for Oregon that we’ve been pointing at is this ball game.  Utah has proven to be a good home team since October began.  The Utes have surrendered an average of 20 points a game over the last three games and has given up a maximum at home of 27 points.  Oregon is a better ball club, but weird things tend to happen when Utah gets a team at home.

 

  • (11) – The view with fans around the league is that the NFC is a bear when it comes to their playoff teams.  With Seattle, San Francisco, Carolina, New Orleans, and Green Bay last year that makes a lot of sense.  But let’s clarify, the NFC is top heavy.  And it is again this year.  Last year 7 NFC teams were over .500, there are 6 this year.  In the AFC, 11 teams are currently over .500.  The AFC is going to be just as big of a bear to get through this year in the playoffs.

The Day After - NFC South

So, 4-4 is now good enough to lead the NFC South.  At least we've now reached a point in the season where at least one NFC South team is no longer a minus in point differential.  That would be the New Orleans Saints, who with two straight wins, have now taken control of this division...for now. 

  • The New Orleans Saints season will play out over the next four ballgames.  Fortunately for the 4-4 Saints, the next three games are all at home as they take on the 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.  After that home stretch, the Saints will play at Pittsburgh.  If they're going to hold onto this lead in the division the Saints must play well against the stiffest competition they'll face this season.

 

  • The Falcons exit the bye week with national reports of owner Arthur Blank looking to make an A-list hire for the team's next head coach.  This is a business decision in my opinion.  A new stadium needs an excited fan base to help sell PSL's.  But be careful.  The Falcons are possibly going to put a coach out of work who is currently 62-42 for his coaching career.  That's not easy to do in this league. 

 

  • If not for a tie against the Bengals, the Carolina Panthers would have a four game losing streak.  As it stands, the three game losing streak feels bad enough with two of those games being at home.  The Panthers now get an Eagles team that is missing their starting quarterback.  This would seem like an opportunity to get right, but you never know with this questionable defense.  QB Cam Newton completed just 35.7% of his passes against the Saints, and has now posted QB ratings of 39.4, 61.0 and 72.6 over the last three ballgames.

 

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are bad.  But an offensive bright spot exists with WR Mike Evans.  Evans is improving and beginning to assert himself more, especially on downfield passing plays.  Evans caught seven passes for 124 yards and two touchdowns against the Browns.  While his season started off quietly, Evans should see more targets as the season moves on.  Evans got 11 targets on Sunday.