Here is what I will be watching for this weekend:
(45th) (#1 Mississippi State at #5 Alabama) – Mississippi State cannot afford to lose this game and make the College Football playoffs. There is a conception that they would be fine but look what the committee has done. Miss State has the 45th ranked schedule in the country in terms of strength of schedule. Oregon just jumped Florida State last week, with Oregon ranking 22nd and Florida State ranking 51st. The committee has already punished Baylor and Ohio State for weak schedules, Miss State can’t afford to lose a game and drop into that group.
(114) (#9 Auburn at #15 Georgia) – This game may be about who can be the first to 45 points. Georgia’s has won 6 of their last 7 games, but their defense continues to be just as shaky. Over the last three games, the Bulldogs have given up 34 points on average and 253 rushing yards per game. Brutal. Auburn’s last four games defensively have been just as bad as they have given up 36 points per game on average and surrendered 486 yards defensively on average. To get the picture, Auburn’s 486 yard average on defense would rank them 114th defensively on the season in all of college football.
(2.5) (#3 Florida State at Miami) – How is this game so close? Florida State is undefeated for the second straight year and continues to feast on the ACC. Last year FSU beat Miami 41-14. So what’s changed? All the metrics show that Florida State is a good team but not a great one. They are 104th in the nation in rushing. They are 33rd in the nation in points on defense. And they currently have the 51st ranked strength of schedule in the country. Miami is a good team playing at home against another good team. They’re not playing against the 2013 National Champions.
(120.1) Eagles at Packers – When Aaron Rodgers told the Packers fan base to “relax”, he must have known what was coming. The Packers are 5-1 since the relax moment, and Rodgers has thrown 20 touchdowns vs just 2 interceptions. Rodgers already holds the record for QB rating for a season, in fact he has two of the top three in history. His rating of 120.1 leads the NFL and will allow him to challenge for his own record this year. If the Eagles are going to slow this things down, they’ll have to force a turnover or two…just as New Orleans forced both of his interceptions during this streak.
Patriots at Colts – Earlier this season I called Andrew Luck the most incredible bus driver in the NFL. That was because over his first two seasons, Luck took care of the football and made plays to win games in the 2nd half. Of Luck’s first 32 regular season starts, he’s had just 4 games where he threw three touchdowns or more. THAT HAS CHANGED. Luck has thrown three touchdowns or more in 6 of 9 games this season. His game has jumped to another level. Tom Brady has thrown at least three touchdowns in his last four games, this should be a fun ball game.