I’m not crazy.
I’m not on or off any meds.
I’m not drunk (right now).
Having admitted to this, I can tell you that Georgia is not dead in the race to make the College Football Playoffs. They are not in a great position, but they are not dead. Before you decide to stop reading this and chalk it up to Bulldog propaganda, know that I’m strictly using logic based on what I have studied from the College Football Playoff Committee.
Let me start by showing you this from the Committee website:
The Committee clearly points out that championships won will not only be the heaviest of weighted criteria, but will also be used when two similar teams are under discussion.
As of now, no one has won anything yet.
The Committee also clearly points out that strength of schedule will also receive heavy consideration. Again, this is based on the established criteria for the committee of experts. When you take a look at the current rankings, you can clearly see how much strength of schedule matters to the committee.
For example, Oregon has jumped Florida State and now sits with the 2nd overall ranking. Why? That has happened in part because Oregon currently has the 22nd ranked strength of schedule rating in college football this year. Florida State is currently 51st.
But what about Mississippi State you ask? Mississippi State has played the 45th ranked schedule leading into their game against Alabama. This is because they took four “gimme” games against Southern Miss, UAB, UT-Martin, and South Alabama. On the other hand, Mississippi State is 2-0 vs teams who have a top 10 strength of schedule ranking (Auburn-LSU) and 4-0 overall vs the top 30. If they were to lose to Alabama on Saturday, I would expect them to suffer the consequences of the soft schedule.
When you look at the Committee rankings, you constantly see how strength of schedule is used to reward or deny status in the rankings. Shouldn’t Baylor be ahead of TCU in the rankings based on their head-to-head victory? Not according to strength of schedule, where TCU’s schedule ranks 23rd while Baylor ranks 55th.
Why can’t Ohio State get more love? Their schedule is currently ranked 54th in the country, with only one game and one win against a top 30 team in strength of schedule. Shouldn’t an 8-1 Nebraska team be ahead of a two-loss Georgia team? Sorry Cornhuskers, their schedule rank of 74th is killing them in the rankings.
I write all of this to explain why the Georgia Bulldogs are still alive for the college football playoffs. Georgia is surprisingly alive for their conference championship. That’s the biggest key in all of this. A win against Auburn and a loss by Missouri in any of their final three conference games will send the Bulldogs to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. Georgia also currently has the 13th ranked schedule in the country in the key strength of schedule criteria. With games against Auburn, Georgia Tech, and an SEC West champion, that will stay strong.
For the teams in front of Georgia, this scenario is not the case. #6 Arizona State must still play #14 Arizona, for the right to play #2 Oregon for the PAC 12 Championship. #5 Alabama must still play #1 Mississippi State and #9 Auburn, with only one of the three getting a chance to win the SEC. #11 UCLA can still play for their conference title, but would still have to deal with Southern Cal and Oregon. Basically, if you have won your conference and played a tough schedule you’re still alive.
So for Georgia, why not? They’re still alive, just barely.