Falcons Training Camp 2015 - Players in Trouble

As of today, we are now one week away from the opening of Atlanta Falcons training camp 2015.  Dan Quinn’s first camp as head coach promises to be a change of pace, perhaps even a breath of fresh air in comparison to the vibe that camp has had in recent years.  That’s the nice part about coaching changes, the fan base and team can afford to bathe themselves in eternal optimism. 

It’s easy to forget that training camp doesn’t just represent the building of a team, but also embodies the cut-throat nature of the NFL.  Playing time, jobs, and some careers will be on the line at Flowery Branch in the hot Georgia sun. 

Continuity rules in the NFL.  Teams that maintain their quarterback, coach, and general manager tend to have a higher rate of success as they do not have to blow up their roster every few years in search of players that fit a new scheme.  This is where the Falcons find themselves.  Changes to their schemes have now placed several players into problematic positions in their careers.

Robert Alford

Cornerback Robert Alford

One of my pet peeves of roster building is when a team uses a premium draft pick in order to replace a player that was taken with another premium draft pick.  After a promising rookie season, Alford was attacked by opposing offenses in 2014 and lost time due to injury.  A 2nd round pick in 2013, Alford was supposed to be part of one of the better young duos at cornerback in this league along with Desmond Trufant.  With the defensive scheme change, the Falcons used their 2015 2nd round pick on cornerback Jalen Collins.  Ideally, Alford plays a ton either on the outside as a starter or as the nickel corner.  But he must win one of those two jobs in order to justify his draft position.

Lamar Holmes

Right Tackle Lamar Holmes

The zone blocking scheme is admittedly a poor fit for Holmes, who broke his foot this offseason. The 2012 3rd round pick was supposed to be a player capable of starting at right tackle for years to come, but has been unable to play a complete season as a starter.  Holmes is running out of chances, and will have to have a great and healthy camp to stick with this team.

Peter Konz

Center Peter Konz

Konz has been unable to prove that he can start in the NFL.  At various times he has been serviceable, but has been regularly overpowered by athletic defensive linemen playing in front of him.  The former 2nd round pick in 2012 has one saving grace: he can play guard if needed.  Konz should be able to hang with this team as a swing-interior lineman.  But his long term outlook with the team isn’t great.

AD isn't Running Anywhere

Viking Adrian Peterson

Despite the rumors, the pie-in-the-sky scenarios, and those crazy conspiracy theories, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson isn't going anywhere.

Peterson and his camp have tried everything this offseason to force their way out of Minnesota.  There were the trade rumors, followed by skipping offseason workouts, and threats of retirement.  Hell, even Peterson recently went on a twitter rant to publicly discuss the unfair nature of non-guaranteed NFL contracts.

Here's why the Vikings hold all of the cards in this game of checkers, not chess:

Peterson was due to make $13M dollars in compensation for 2015.  That has now been reduced to $12.75M because Peterson plans to withhold his workout services this offseason, costing him $250,000 in a workout bonus. 

The problem for Peterson is that his six year contract has three years remaining on it, but the guaranteed money on the deal runs out in 2015.  Guaranteed money offers the player protection from being cut, as it forces the team to deal with money allocated to a player that is no longer on the team.  Peterson has no such protection after this year.

Come 2016, a 31 year old Peterson is due to $15M.  The Vikings could choose to cut him and save every penny of that $15M.  Needless to say, a 32 year old Peterson will almost certainly not see the $17M he's due in 2017.  Here's how it breaks down:

Adrian Peterson
2015: 12.75M base salary (250,000 workout bonus - WILL NOT BE EARNED)
2016: 14.75M base salary (250,000 workout bonus)
2017: 16.75M base salary (250,000 workout bonus)

Peterson could choose to retire in order to attempt to force a Vikings move.  But the guaranteed money remaining on his contract for 2015 makes that prohibitive.  The Vikings have already paid $2.4M dollars to Peterson that is accounted for in 2015, the team could demand Peterson to pay them that back if he chooses to retire.

At the end of the day, Peterson could cost himself $13M dollars for 2015, and would than have to pay the Vikings another $2.4M.  Whatever you think of Peterson's intellect, he's certainly not going to go down the retirement road. 

Peterson's only hope would be for a team to offer at least a future first rounder to Minnesota for his services and offer him a new contract.  For a 30 year old running back who's played in just one game since 2013, that's the biggest pie-in-the-sky scenario of all.

Improving The Falcons, Improve The Run.

Indiana RB Tevin Coleman

This is not a piece on why the Falcons should draft Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 8th overall pick.

This is a piece on why the Falcons should do everything they can to improve their running game.

If the Falcons wish to become a playoff contender in 2015 the over-arching issue is that the team must improve defensively from what they have been in 2014 and 2013.  I am a lover of the sack; it’s my single biggest factor in determining whether you’re a championship contender outside of quarterback play.  Teams that can get quarterbacks off the field on third down are factors year round.  That is why you consistently hear people talking about the Falcons drafting a pass rusher at 8th overall.

But allow me to give you a different angle for improving the Falcons defense: Do everything you can to keep them off of the field with a stronger running game.  The Falcons are in a weird spot for this 2015 draft.  Stay where you are and the best player available to you may not be a pass rusher. That could be the best offensive lineman in guard Brandon Scherff or the best running back in Todd Gurley.  Either would allow the Falcons to rebuild their running game and improve their defense.

The test case for this can be found in the 2014 Dallas Cowboys.  Understand that the Dallas defense was historically bad in 2013. They allowed the third most yards in NFL history that season while earning the 32nd ranked defense.  It was bad, nearly as bad as it gets.

What changed in 2014?  Here’s a look at their defensive numbers in comparison to the previous year.

                                                                       2013                       2014

Sacks:                                                              34                           28

Turnovers Forced:                                          28                           31

3rd Down Conversions:                               43.3%                    43.6%

Avg Plays Defended per Game:                  68.4                        61.7

The Cowboys did not significantly improve their defense in 2014.  They didn’t sack the quarterback more and they weren’t better on third down.  What they were was on the field less. Much less.  The defense would defend almost seven plays less per game.  The defensive ranking improved from 32nd to 19th due in large part to a running game that held the ball for 32:13 a game on average. That would turn out to be a three minute improvement from 2013.

If the Falcons are to improve on their own 32nd defensive ranking, improving their time of possession would help significantly.  The Falcons held onto the ball for 29:22 on average, good enough for 24th in the NFL.  Rebuilding a talent-poor defense takes time. Making a commitment to controlling the football is an organizational decision. 

What would be a perfect draft for the Falcons? I would love to have a situation in which the team landed a pass rusher and a running back in the first couple of rounds to quickly add two starters. Let’s call it linebacker Bud Dupree and running back Tevin Coleman.  That would improve the pass rush while also helping the running game.  But drafts are an ever-changing situation where a run on pass rushers could pick the board over by the 8th overall pick.

Under a scenario where Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler, Bud Dupree and Vic Beasley were all off the board at eight, why reach to grab another pass rusher? A situation where you come out of the first round with Todd Gurley/Brandon Scherff and defensive end Owamagbe Odighizuwa in the second round would still improve the current situation.

Improve the running game, improve the team.  And if you can find three starters in this draft, that would be okay with me too.