Indiana RB Tevin Coleman
This is not a piece on why the Falcons should draft Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 8th overall pick.
This is a piece on why the Falcons should do everything they can to improve their running game.
If the Falcons wish to become a playoff contender in 2015 the over-arching issue is that the team must improve defensively from what they have been in 2014 and 2013. I am a lover of the sack; it’s my single biggest factor in determining whether you’re a championship contender outside of quarterback play. Teams that can get quarterbacks off the field on third down are factors year round. That is why you consistently hear people talking about the Falcons drafting a pass rusher at 8th overall.
But allow me to give you a different angle for improving the Falcons defense: Do everything you can to keep them off of the field with a stronger running game. The Falcons are in a weird spot for this 2015 draft. Stay where you are and the best player available to you may not be a pass rusher. That could be the best offensive lineman in guard Brandon Scherff or the best running back in Todd Gurley. Either would allow the Falcons to rebuild their running game and improve their defense.
The test case for this can be found in the 2014 Dallas Cowboys. Understand that the Dallas defense was historically bad in 2013. They allowed the third most yards in NFL history that season while earning the 32nd ranked defense. It was bad, nearly as bad as it gets.
What changed in 2014? Here’s a look at their defensive numbers in comparison to the previous year.
2013 2014
Sacks: 34 28
Turnovers Forced: 28 31
3rd Down Conversions: 43.3% 43.6%
Avg Plays Defended per Game: 68.4 61.7
The Cowboys did not significantly improve their defense in 2014. They didn’t sack the quarterback more and they weren’t better on third down. What they were was on the field less. Much less. The defense would defend almost seven plays less per game. The defensive ranking improved from 32nd to 19th due in large part to a running game that held the ball for 32:13 a game on average. That would turn out to be a three minute improvement from 2013.
If the Falcons are to improve on their own 32nd defensive ranking, improving their time of possession would help significantly. The Falcons held onto the ball for 29:22 on average, good enough for 24th in the NFL. Rebuilding a talent-poor defense takes time. Making a commitment to controlling the football is an organizational decision.
What would be a perfect draft for the Falcons? I would love to have a situation in which the team landed a pass rusher and a running back in the first couple of rounds to quickly add two starters. Let’s call it linebacker Bud Dupree and running back Tevin Coleman. That would improve the pass rush while also helping the running game. But drafts are an ever-changing situation where a run on pass rushers could pick the board over by the 8th overall pick.
Under a scenario where Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler, Bud Dupree and Vic Beasley were all off the board at eight, why reach to grab another pass rusher? A situation where you come out of the first round with Todd Gurley/Brandon Scherff and defensive end Owamagbe Odighizuwa in the second round would still improve the current situation.
Improve the running game, improve the team. And if you can find three starters in this draft, that would be okay with me too.