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Final Thoughts - CFB Playoff Committee

The first ever playoff in College Football is now set.  The final four teams that will compete for the national championship are now Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State.  Not to say I told you so, but after studying the committee criteria I believed that we would be given the top four conference champions for this playoff.  I wrote about that here:

http://www.frontofficefootball.net/blog/2014/11/17/the-georgia-playoff-run-alive-and-kicking

 

When it comes to Ohio State jumping into the final four and TCU falling out, the reasoning was explained here weeks ago:

http://www.frontofficefootball.net/blog/2014/11/19/the-georgia-playoff-update

 

I point this stuff out because what is coming to college football is great for the sport.  Actually, it’s great for the fans of college football.  This committee and the criteria by which they put this playoff together provided us several new elements moving forward:

  • The committee rewarded teams that played 13 games vs 12.  Basically, you had to be a conference champion in order to get in.  The Big 12, who were just behind the SEC in adding a conference championship game must now add teams in order to have a 13th game.  This means more football for fans of college football.

 

  • When comparing Baylor and Ohio State for the 4th spot in these playoffs, strength of schedule played a part as Ohio State played the 45th ranked schedule while Baylor played the 59th.  The issue moving forward for schools is not who you lose to, but who you schedule.  Ohio State lost to Virginia Tech and home, Baylor lost to West Virginia on the road.  But where Baylor hurt their resume was in scheduling Northwestern State from the FCS.  Ohio State did not schedule an FCS school this year, which helped their resume.  Ultimately, fans of college football will get better games and less cream-puff games moving forward.

 

  • Undefeated is important, but it is not an end-all-be-all.  Florida State made the playoffs as it should have as an undefeated conference champion.  But their place as the third ranked team was not because of their schedule, but the nature of their games.  They were consistently challenged and nearly defeated by unranked teams.  After finishing first in game control in 2013, Florida State was ranked 25th in 2014.  Moving forward, the committee will give you credit for being undefeated but will not overlook your lack of dominance.

 

  • A two loss team will have a chance at this moving forward.  If your team plays in a tough conference in a particular year, the team can overcome that by winning their conference and reaching the playoffs.  Arizona would have been the great test for this had they defeated Oregon.  It will be a terrific argument moving forward if a two loss SEC or Pac 12 team deserves a spot instead of a 1 loss Big 10 or ACC team.      

College & NFL Notes 12/6 - 12/7

(40)  Missouri and Alabama – For Missouri to spring the upset, they will have to take away something from Alabama.  LSU was able to slow down their running game.  The same went for Ole Miss.  Missouri is built to get after quarterback Blake Sims.  Missouri continues to turn out NFL quality pass rushers.  Shane Ray led the SEC in sacks with 14, while Markus Golden got 9.  The Tigers led the entire SEC with 40 sacks on the season.  Playing in the Georgia dome will be helpful to their fast edge rushers, and they’ll have to be effective if they’re going to keep Alabama out of the CFB playoffs.

(30%) Wisconsin and Ohio State – Vegas has Wisconsin as a favorite in this game due to the injury of Ohio State quarterback JT Barrett.  How big has Barrett been as he’s grown through this season?  He has accounted for 96% of the passing yards for Ohio State…which is expected as the starting quarterback.  But he’s also accounted for 30% of the team’s rushing yards.  Barrett’s 938 rushing yards were easily second on the team.  What the Buckeyes toss out there on Saturday night…is anyone’s guess.   

(17) Florida State and Georgia Tech – Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is undefeated as a starter over the past two years but there is something significantly different about his performance in 2014: he’s a turnover machine.  Winston has thrown 17 interceptions so far this year, he threw 10 in all of 2013.  To put that in perspective, that’s more interceptions than any other quarterback in the power 5 conferences.  Georgia Tech can beat the Seminoles.  The Yellow Jackets are 4th in rushing yards and 3rd in time of possession.  They are not the type of team you want to turn the ball over against because they effectively shorten games.

(0) Seahawks at Eagles – The Seahawks seems to be getting their defense in order just in time.  This is what championship teams do as they reach December.  In the last three games, the defense has held their opponents to 220 yards of offense on average.  Offensively, the Seahawks have rushed for nearly 500 yards (485), and most impressively they have not turned the ball over.  The Eagles running game and offense is humming right now as they rushed for 256 yards last week.  This game should be a great contest.  

(25) Patriots at Chargers – For all of our attention to Tom Brady, and rightfully so, this is the best matchup of quarterbacks this weekend.  Charger Phillip Rivers is having a fantastic year.  In comparison to Brady, he’s completed a higher percentage of his throws, (69%), has more yards per attempt, and has a higher quarterback rating.  Rivers has thrown 25 touchdowns, 3 less than Brady…and has thrown for just 25 yards less than Brady.  The Chargers have a good shot at a high seed in the AFC playoffs if they can win this game. 

Game Review - Cardinals and Falcons

The return of Falcons S William Moore was a footnote in my mind going into the game against Arizona.  I have always questioned the logic of the contract given to Moore given his injury history and questionable coverage skills.  I've always seen him as a hitter who can change the momentum of a game defensively but pays for that physicality in games missed.  Against the Cardinals, the Falcons unveiled an entirely new defensive look.  The Falcons deployed a three safety defense on every third down during this game.  It was new, different and very effective. 

Here is what I took away from the game review:

  • S Kemal Ishmael was the odd man out in the starting lineup with S William Moore back.  But he was certainly part of the game plan.  These weeks with him as a starter have been productive as he is playing with growing confidence.
  • S Dwight Lowery showed an ability to play some defense when in the slot.  He quickly re-directed oncoming receivers and took away the easy throws.
  • For a player coming off of injury, S William Moore played all over the field without restrictions.

Let's take a look at some plays:

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3rd and 10 - 10:59 AZ 20 yard line (1st QT) 7-0 Falcons Lead:

The Falcons deployed their three safety look on each third down during the game.  On this play, S Moore is the deep safety with S Ishmael lined up eight yards off the line of scrimmage.  S Lowery lines up preparing to blitz but ultimately dropped into zone coverage.  CB Josh Wilson comes on a blitz as the Falcons defend four receivers with six defenders. 

Click to Enlarge:

Click to Enlarge:

3rd and 8 - 7:17 AZ 22 yard line (1st QT) 10-0 Falcons Lead:

On Arizona's second attempt to covert a third down, S Ishmael is the deep safety protecting the back-end.  This gets interesting as Moore and Lowery are lined up as linebackers.  Post snap, the middle of the field has been taken away by the Falcons.  QB Stanton throws a 10 yard out to WR Michael Floyd for the first down.  But this would be the only third down conversion for the Cardinals on the day. 

The rest of the half featured more of the same on third down:

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Click to Enlarge:

Here is what the Cardinals managed to accomplish against the Falcons on third down over the course of the entire game.  It will be interesting to see if the three safety look will be used this week against QB Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers:

  • Cardinals: 1-7 on third down conversions
  • Cardinals: 1-6 passing for 10 yards on third down.
  • Cardinals: allowed 1 sack on third down.