The weekly CFB Playoff rankings are out and the Georgia Bulldogs now find themselves ranked 10th in the country. I’m not looking to say, “I told you so”, but I will point out that the Playoff Committee now only has 10 teams alive to make the playoffs with three weeks to play. As you would expect, not all 10 remaining teams have the same scenarios for reaching the playoffs. Some need help while winning their remaining games. Some will eventually get eliminated due to their lack of a championship.
Let’s take a look at the road for each of these teams:
10. Georgia
(Strength of Schedule: 5) (Strength of Record: 10) (Game Control: 3)
Needs: Missouri loss to either Tennessee or Arkansas.
Must: Beat Charleston Southern, Georgia Tech, and SEC West Champion.
High Point: If Georgia does all of this, they will find themselves in competition with Ohio State and Baylor at the very worst for a playoff spot. Their resume is stronger than both despite two losses.
9. UCLA
(Strength of Schedule: 2) (Strength of Record: 8) (Game Control: 20)
Must: Beat Southern Cal, Stanford, and Oregon - Pac 12 North Champion.
High Point: If UCLA runs this final table, they would take Oregon’s spot in the playoffs.
8. Ole Miss
(Strength of Schedule: 13) (Strength of Record: 7) (Game Control: 3)
Needs: Alabama loss to Auburn.
Must: Beat Arkansas, Mississippi State and SEC East Champion.
High Point: Ole Miss could reach the playoffs as the SEC Champion given their resume over the course of the season.
7. Baylor
(Strength of Schedule: 59) (Strength of Record: 6) (Game Control: 7)
Must: Beat Texas Tech and Kansas State.
High Point: Baylor would jump TCU as long as they each win the Big 12 Conference championship. Under the committee criteria, the head-to-head victory would push them over TCU. But their strength of schedule would still create a debate between them, Ohio State, and a possible two-loss Pac 12/SEC conference champion.
6. Ohio State
(Strength of Schedule: 46) (Strength of Record: 11) (Game Control: 9)
Must: Beat Indiana, Michigan and Big 10 West Champion.
High Point: Ohio State is in competition to jump Mississippi State with Baylor. Ohio State’s resume numbers are close to Baylor, as both teams are lacking in competition and dominance of average schedule. An Ohio State conference title would create a big argument between them and Baylor.
5. TCU
(Strength of Schedule: 49) (Strength of Record: 5) (Game Control: 8)
Needs: Baylor loss to Texas Tech or Kansas State
Must: Beat Texas and Iowa State.
High Point: TCU would jump Mississippi State with the strength of a conference title. The problem is that Baylor beat TCU and must lose in order to eliminate the head-to-head aspect of the committee’s criteria. A Baylor loss would make TCU and Kansas State co-Big 12 champions and push the Horned Frogs forward based on their win over K-State.
4. Mississippi State
(Strength of Schedule: 34) (Strength of Record: 3) (Game Control: 2)
Needs: Alabama loss to Auburn
Must: Beat Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and SEC East Champion.
High Point: It is my opinion that the only way Mississippi State reaches the CFB playoffs is with an SEC Championship. They have a resume that deserves a spot, but the primary critera for consideration under this committee is a conference championship. You can imagine that the argument between a 2nd place finish in your division verse a major conference champion such as the Big 10 or Big 12 would not turn out well. I fully believe the committee will not allow that to happen based on their rules.
3. Florida State
(Strength of Schedule: 38) (Strength of Record: 2) (Game Control: 34)
Must: Beat Boston College, Florida and ACC Coastal Champion.
High Point: Florida State simply can’t lose. Their strength of schedule and game control numbers would jeopardize their place in the playoffs. A conference title is an absolute must.
2. Oregon
(Strength of Schedule: 16) (Strength of Record: 4) (Game Control: 4)
Must: Beat Colorado State, Oregon State and Pac 12 South Champion.
High Point: Because of their resume, Oregon could lose either of their final two regular season games and still reach the playoffs with a Pac 12 title. Only a title game loss would eliminate them from contention.
1. Alabama
(Strength of Schedule: 3) (Strength of Record: 1) (Game Control: 1)
Must: Beat Western Carolina, Auburn and SEC East Champion.
High Point: Alabama must win their final two regular season games. Losing to Auburn would open the door for Mississippi State or Ole Miss. An SEC title game win is an absolute must to maintain their place in the playoffs.