The Falcons Winning Dilemna

I am not an advocate for losing.  Losing is a practice in the NFL that becomes cultural.  Once an organization becomes a consistent loser, it’s incredibly difficult to change that atmosphere.  Think about Oakland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Washington.  Those teams consistently lose to the point that a winning season feels like a freakish anomaly.   

With that being clearly stated, the Falcons are in a precarious situation.  At 5-7 and in the worst division in NFL history, the team sits in first place and faces only one challenger in the New Orleans Saints.  Winning the division at 7-9 would allow the Falcons to host a playoff game and possibly save the jobs of Head Coach Mike Smith and General Manager Thomas Dimitroff.  For a season that’s seen its ups and downs, that would be progress in the right direction.

But as I steal for Hall of Fame Coach Bill Parcells, “there’s another side to that pancake.”  Clearly the biggest issue with this Falcons team is a lack of top-end defensive talent…and overall depth.  Looking at the big picture, winning this NFC South will hurt the Falcons in terms of grabbing starting quality defensive talent in the 2015 NFL Draft.  For the sake of argument, let’s say the Falcons were to finish this season with a record of 7-9.  Maybe that would win the division, maybe it wouldn’t depending on the outcomes for the Saints.  But here are a few things to consider:

• The Detroit Lions picked 10th overall in the 2014 Draft after going 7-9.

• If the Falcons don’t win the NFC South, they are projected to pick between 10th to 13th.

• If the Falcons win the NFC South, the highest pick they could have is 21st.

• If the Falcons won a home playoff game, the highest pick they could have is 25th.

There are callers that have told me that it doesn’t matter where the Falcons pick because, “They will mess up the pick anyway.”  That’s always a possibility.  But I want to use this to highlight how draft talent plateaus work.  It’s so important that I’m going to type it again: DRAFT TALENT PLATEAUS.  Every NFL Draft has them, and pointing them out helps to see the strength of a draft and the importance of your pick.  NFL organizations make it a year-round process to grade college players in order to increase their chance of making good picks.

Below is a portion of my Top 50 board from the 2014 NFL Draft.  From my film study and grading, I felt there were five elite prospects in the draft.  Typically an elite QB stands apart from everyone else.  But I didn't have one of those here.  I ranked Clowney, Watkins, Matthews, Barr and Mack as the first plateau of talent for this draft.

From 6 to 18, I had a similar rating for that group of players.  All of those players having the potential to be NFL starters as rookies.  LB CJ Mosley was my final player that carried a first round grade.  6 to 18 was my second plateau of draft talent.         

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To refresh your memory, this is how the draft ended up playing out:

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As you can see, I inserted plateau lines to illustrate the talent plateaus.  You can see that Buffalo made the jump into the first talent plateau (9 to 4) by trading a 2015 first round pick to select WR Sammy Watkins.  You can also see that once the top 18 players were off the board, teams began to make moves to select specific players who were similarly rated.  Essentially, the 2nd round began at pick 19.  Miami surprised many by picking RT Ja'Wuan James but he fit a need and carried a grade that wasn't significantly different from the remaining players on the board.  You will also notice that after pick 18, the amount of trading greatly increased.

I point all of this out to ultimately say this: the Falcons will cost themselves access to a higher quality defensive player if they happen to win the worst division in NFL history.  When you view the draft in terms of the talent plateaus, it becomes very clear that drafting 10th is considerably more advantageous than 21st to 25th.

Is it still possible to screw up a high pick?  Sure.  It happens all the time.  But I've said since 2013 that this is at least a two-year process before the Falcons window may reopen.  Having better players is a big part of this thing competing for Super Bowls again. 

The Day After - NFC South

It was a unique weekend for the NFC South.  The division as a whole was just 2-20-1 when playing teams currently over .500 coming into Sunday’s action.  Victories for the Saints and Falcons doubled that win total in beating Pittsburgh and Arizona.

• The Falcons answered the Saints win earlier in the day with one of their own in which they never trailed the nine win Cardinals.  An outstanding day for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones as they two consistently challenged and beat the Cardinals vaunted corners.  But we did have a unicorn moment in this game.  Steven Jackson actually surpassed 100 yards rushing for the first time in his Falcons tenure.  Jackson’s 101 yards on 18 carries gives him his first 100 yard game since November 25th of 2012.  His first half gains on the ground certainly jumps out:  6, 55, 1, 0, 0, 1, 4, -2.

• I guess the idea that the Saints offense would improve with the health of TE Jimmy Graham were not exaggerated.  The Saints offense took it to the Steelers while keeping QB Ben Roethlisberger under control throughout the day.  Drew Brees’ posted five touchdown passes for the 9th time in his career and for the first time since Oct 27th of 2013 against the Buffalo Bills.  Brees best year for five touchdown performances came in 2011 when he had three different games with five touchdown passes.  After sputtering through a three game dome stand, the Saints may just be getting things together before their matchup in December against the Falcons in New Orleans.

• Tampa Bay took it in the shorts in the final minute of the game.  In case you missed it, The Buccaneers were driving for a game winning score against the Bengals in a 14-13 game.  The Bucs reached field goal range on the strength of a pass play with 12 men on the field.  With the game inside of two minutes, replays can only come from the overlords in New York.  In a moment of frustration and confusion, Bengals coach Marvin Lewis threw his challenge flag.  Lewis was docked a timeout, but accomplished the goal of getting the play reviewed.  The 12 men on the field call was made, and the Bengals defended the Bucs last ditch effort to score.  That’s one of those once-in-a-season type weird outcomes teams get.    

• 28 points in the first half to the Minnesota Vikings, including two blocked punts for touchdowns…really Carolina?  Really?  I’ve long believed that bad special teams is a lack of attention to detail and commitment to fielding a full 53 man roster.  The Panthers ineptitude is only slightly covered up in this division by Tampa Bay’s.  What a terrible offensive line.   

College & NFL Notes 11/22 - 11/23

• USC @ UCLA – This college football season is unlike any other.  Because we now go into each weekend with an eye on the college teams that can be eliminated from playoff contention.  UCLA is one of the great test cases for this playoff system.  If they beat USC, Stanford, and Oregon in the Pac 12 title game, they’d be into the playoffs.  UCLA currently has the 2nd highest strength of schedule in the country, so if they can reach 11-2 they would be in with a conference championship.

• Missouri @ Tennessee – The SEC version of UCLA depends on this game.  After beating Auburn last weekend, Georgia now plays Charleston Southern and ACC Coastal Champion – Georgia Tech to conclude their season.  If they were to reach the SEC title game and beat Alabama, they’d be 11-2 with a top 3 strength of schedule.  It might also be a nightmare scenario for the SEC not getting a team into the playoffs.  But it doesn’t become possible unless Missouri loses one of their last two games.  At Tennessee is their toughest remaining.

• Lions @ Patriots – In an NFC where there is a threat of a 10 win team or two missing the playoffs, the Lions are in good shape.  Despite playing the Patriots on the road this Sunday, the Lions will play only one more game against teams that are .500 or better.  (Green Bay plays 3 / Philly 3 / Dallas 3 / San Francisco 4 / Seattle 5) 

• (.737) Cardinals @ Seahawks – How good is Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians?  I don’t believe people can fully grasp what is going on with the Cardinals and Arians.  After losing Carson Palmer, Arians has 8 year NFL veteran Drew Stanton playing the best football of his career.  Until this season Stanton hadn’t started an NFL game since 2010.  He’s currently 3-1 as a starter and led the Cardinals to victory over the Rams.  If you take into account Arians season as the interim head coach in Indianapolis in 2012, Arians is 28-10.  That’s a .737 win percentage.  The only coaches in the modern NFL era with a better percentage are Vince Lombardi and John Madden.

• (105) Dallas @ New York Giants – Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo is having the best season of his career.  For him, it’s about having a team around him that’s asking him to do less with more.  Consider this:  Romo currently has the highest QB rating of his career.  The 2nd highest yards per completion of his career and most since 2006.  2nd highest completion percentage.  Romo is on pace is averaging 29 passing attempts per game.  Last year he averaged 36, in 2012 he averaged 41 passes.  In total, Romo is going to throw 105 fewer passes this year than last year, and 218 fewer passes than 2012.