Blog

The Georgia Playoff Update

The weekly CFB Playoff rankings are out and the Georgia Bulldogs now find themselves ranked 10th in the country. I’m not looking to say, “I told you so”, but I will point out that the Playoff Committee now only has 10 teams alive to make the playoffs with three weeks to play. As you would expect, not all 10 remaining teams have the same scenarios for reaching the playoffs. Some need help while winning their remaining games. Some will eventually get eliminated due to their lack of a championship.

Let’s take a look at the road for each of these teams:

10. Georgia

(Strength of Schedule: 5) (Strength of Record: 10) (Game Control: 3)

Needs: Missouri loss to either Tennessee or Arkansas.

Must: Beat Charleston Southern, Georgia Tech, and SEC West Champion.

High Point: If Georgia does all of this, they will find themselves in competition with Ohio State and Baylor at the very worst for a playoff spot. Their resume is stronger than both despite two losses.

9. UCLA

(Strength of Schedule: 2) (Strength of Record: 8) (Game Control: 20)

Must: Beat Southern Cal, Stanford, and Oregon - Pac 12 North Champion.

High Point: If UCLA runs this final table, they would take Oregon’s spot in the playoffs.

8. Ole Miss

(Strength of Schedule: 13) (Strength of Record: 7) (Game Control: 3)

Needs: Alabama loss to Auburn.

Must: Beat Arkansas, Mississippi State and SEC East Champion.

High Point: Ole Miss could reach the playoffs as the SEC Champion given their resume over the course of the season.

7. Baylor

(Strength of Schedule: 59) (Strength of Record: 6) (Game Control: 7)

Must: Beat Texas Tech and Kansas State.

High Point: Baylor would jump TCU as long as they each win the Big 12 Conference championship. Under the committee criteria, the head-to-head victory would push them over TCU. But their strength of schedule would still create a debate between them, Ohio State, and a possible two-loss Pac 12/SEC conference champion.

6. Ohio State

(Strength of Schedule: 46) (Strength of Record: 11) (Game Control: 9)

Must: Beat Indiana, Michigan and Big 10 West Champion.

High Point: Ohio State is in competition to jump Mississippi State with Baylor. Ohio State’s resume numbers are close to Baylor, as both teams are lacking in competition and dominance of average schedule. An Ohio State conference title would create a big argument between them and Baylor.

5. TCU

(Strength of Schedule: 49) (Strength of Record: 5) (Game Control: 8)

Needs: Baylor loss to Texas Tech or Kansas State

Must: Beat Texas and Iowa State.

High Point: TCU would jump Mississippi State with the strength of a conference title. The problem is that Baylor beat TCU and must lose in order to eliminate the head-to-head aspect of the committee’s criteria. A Baylor loss would make TCU and Kansas State co-Big 12 champions and push the Horned Frogs forward based on their win over K-State.

4. Mississippi State

(Strength of Schedule: 34) (Strength of Record: 3) (Game Control: 2)

Needs: Alabama loss to Auburn

Must: Beat Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and SEC East Champion.

High Point: It is my opinion that the only way Mississippi State reaches the CFB playoffs is with an SEC Championship. They have a resume that deserves a spot, but the primary critera for consideration under this committee is a conference championship. You can imagine that the argument between a 2nd place finish in your division verse a major conference champion such as the Big 10 or Big 12 would not turn out well. I fully believe the committee will not allow that to happen based on their rules.

3. Florida State

(Strength of Schedule: 38) (Strength of Record: 2) (Game Control: 34)

Must: Beat Boston College, Florida and ACC Coastal Champion.

High Point: Florida State simply can’t lose. Their strength of schedule and game control numbers would jeopardize their place in the playoffs. A conference title is an absolute must.

2. Oregon

(Strength of Schedule: 16) (Strength of Record: 4) (Game Control: 4)

Must: Beat Colorado State, Oregon State and Pac 12 South Champion.

High Point: Because of their resume, Oregon could lose either of their final two regular season games and still reach the playoffs with a Pac 12 title. Only a title game loss would eliminate them from contention.

1. Alabama

(Strength of Schedule: 3) (Strength of Record: 1) (Game Control: 1)

Must: Beat Western Carolina, Auburn and SEC East Champion.

High Point: Alabama must win their final two regular season games. Losing to Auburn would open the door for Mississippi State or Ole Miss. An SEC title game win is an absolute must to maintain their place in the playoffs.

Game Review - Falcons at Panthers

The NFC South is ridiculous. At 4-6, and after being left for dead with vultures circling, the Atlanta Falcons are now in first place in the division. It's amazing how a couple of wins in a row can complete change a team's standings in this division. But hey, first place is first place. Someone has to win the division. The Falcons might as well compete for it and be relevant into December.

While beating Tampa on the road ended the awful losing streak, beating Carolina on the road now gives the Falcons a path to playing well in the second half. The team will get a return trip from the Panthers to end the season as four of their last six are at home. But first things first, as the Cleveland Browns are at the dome on Sunday.

Here is what I took away from this game review:

The Falcons defense is developing an identity. We have seen them become more creative with their blitz packages. Now they're calling those blitzes more often.
Safety Kemal Ishmael is being asked to do much more in coverage and at the line of scrimmage.
This group is going down, or going to survive by pulling out all the stops. The aggressive calls on both sides of the ball have increased. Now if they would only scrap that damn receiver tunnel screen.

Let's take a look at a few plays:

1st and 10 - 12:47 CAR 25 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

The Falcons got off the bus on Sunday ready to blitz Panthers QB Cam Newton. The Panthers offensive line has been a mess and their weapons don't regularly threaten you down the field. On this play, the Falcons are bringing their three down linemen, OLB Kory Biermann, and MLB Paul Worrilow. The Panthers start their first possession by busting their count and allowing both DE Tyson Jackson and Worrilow to come untouched at Newton. A 15 yard roughing penalty on Jackson saved the play, but set the tone for the game.

3rd and 9 - 3:34 ATL 40 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

This play did not get the intended results as QB Cam Newton was able to scramble away from pressure and deliver a first down pass. But it points out how the Falcons are willing to send considerable blitzes on 3rd down now. S Kemal Ishmael, who had already intercepted a pass in the game, comes on the blitz and forces the Panthers offensive linemen to handle their assignments one-on-one.

3rd and 10 - 2:02 CAR 40 yard line (2nd QT) 3-3 Score:

The Falcons defense recorded one of their two sacks on this play as the defense did an outstanding job in man coverage against the Panthers. With only one safety playing centerfield, the Falcons secondary took away any opportunity for a completion.

3rd and 10 - 13:44 CAR 28 yard line (3rd QT) 3-3 Score:

On this play, CB Desmond Trufant turned the game in the Falcons favor just out of half time. The Falcons were playing man-free on this play. While there is a safety defending deep, the outside corners are essentially alone on islands. S Kemal Ishmael blitzes on this play but is picked up immediately.

The play results in an easy interception as Trufant jumps the slant route and sets up the Falcons to take the lead.

1st and 10 - 6:48 ATL 46 yard line (4TH QT) 16-10 Falcons Lead:

The play that allowed the Panthers to take a late lead in the ball game came from taking advantage of the Falcons assignments. TE Olsen runs across the field at 10 yards just behind the defending LBs and in front of S Kemal Ishmael. Once the Falcons defense adjusted to Olsen, there is clearly a man-to-man situation on the outside of the field. QB Newton makes the deep throw for the 17-16 lead.

-los

The Georgia Playoff Run - Still Alive

I spent the weekend explaining multiple times how Georgia could reach the College Football Playoff at the conclusion of this regular season. Despite my best efforts, the biggest difficulty I’ve experienced is that you can’t un-teach decades of a learned practice.

What I mean by that statement is that this is no longer a poll-driven sport. Forget what you have experienced over all of your years of watching college football. It used to be that the 5th ranked team in the country needed multiple teams in front of them to lose in order to reach their goal. That is no longer the case. What you must now do is think of each team in terms of resume.

While we get rankings each Tuesday evening, the complete resume is what will eventually be judged. Because no team has won a conference championship as of yet, the biggest component of the ranking has not been factored in.

This is good for Georgia, trust me.

The Committee is provided a wealth of statistics by Atlanta-based Sports Source Analytics, who can help in providing clarity for a comparison between two teams. The use of strength of schedule has been very big with the Committee thus far. Let’s take a look at a few teams at the top of the rankings and how they compare:

Strength of Schedule = schedule difficulty based on what an average team would do against the teams already played.

Strength of Record = measures the amount of wins accumulated by a team’s opponents on their schedule.

Game Control = put simply, measures how much control a team had over a football game. The measure helps eliminate bias in margin of victory or piling on points late in a game.

Top 10 = record vs opponents with a top 10 ranking in strength of schedule.

Top 30 = record vs opponents with a top 30 ranking in strength of schedule played against.

Team A

(SOS) = 38

(SOR) = 2

(GC) = 34

(Top 10 = 0-0)

(Top 30 = 3-0)

Team B

(SOS) = 3

(SOR) = 1

(GC) = 1

(Top 10 = 1-1)

(Top 30 = 7-1)

Team C

(SOS) = 16

(SOR) = 4

(GC) = 4

(Top 10 = 0-0)

(Top 30 = 3-0)

Team D

(SOS) = 34

(SOR) = 3

(GC) = 2

(Top 10 = 1-1)

(Top 30 = 4-1)

Team E

(SOS) = 5

(SOR) = 10

(GC) = 3

(Top 10 = 1-0)

(Top 30 = 5-1)

I left the team names off so that you could see a purely statistical ranking view for each team. For instance, Team A has played some above average teams, who have good records, but they have failed to control the outcome of the games regularly. Team D is similar, but they have been more dominant in controlling the outcomes of their games.

Team E has a top tier strength of schedule, strength of opponent’s records, and have largely been in control of most of their games. They have also played well against stronger competition. Team E is Georgia.

Here are the other teams:

Team A: Florida State

Team B: Alabama

Team C: Oregon

Team D: Mississppi State

The most important aspect of this entire exercise is to realize that Georgia has to find their way to the Georgia Dome in order to have any chance at making the playoffs. But if they did, and they won, their resume would be as strong as any in the country. With the most important component, a championship won, being their final resume line.

Projected Top 4 for 11/18/14

1. Alabama

2. Oregon

3. Florida State

4. Mississippi State