Takeaways - NFL Week 2

Kroy Biermann Strips Eli Manning (WSBTV)

• (ESPN Stats & Info) Since 1990, NFL teams that start 2-0 have a 63% chance of making the playoffs.  Those that start 1-1 have a 41% chance.  Those that start 0-2 have a 12% chance.

• Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan had 46 pass attempts on Sunday in the victory over the New York Giants.  This was the 15th game in his career in which Ryan had at least 46 pass attempts, he was previously 3-11.  It was also the most throws he’s made in a game without an interception since December of 2013 in an overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills.

• Speaking of throwing attempts in week two, Texans quarterback Ryan Mallett had a career high in attempts in a loss to the Carolina Panthers.  Mallett attempted 58 throws, completing 27 while throwing for one touchdown and one interception. 

• Matthew Stafford also went over the 50 mark, attempting 53 passes in a loss to the Minnesota Vikings.  Stafford is now 0-9 in games he has thrown the ball 50 times, with a career high of 63 passing attempts in a loss to the Bears in 2011. 

• Tom Brady actually led the NFL this past week with 59 pass attempts in a win over the Buffalo Bills.  59 represents the second most amount of passing attempts that Brady has made during his career.  Brady is now 10-6 when throwing the ball 50+ times in a game.

• The ridiculous play of Falcons receiver Julio Jones: Julio’s two games this year gives him a combined 276 yards receiving.  That is actually just his 3rd best back-to-back games during his career.  In 2014 he posted 448 yards against Arizona and Green Bay.  In 2013, Julio Jones had 297 yards receiving in back-to-back games against St. Louis and Miami.

• Falcons Defensive Improvements: The Falcons were 32nd in defense last year in the NFL, and where 32nd in opponents 3rd down conversions.  To date the Falcons are now 27th in total defense, but more importantly, 21st in third down conversions. 

• Time of possession: The Falcons biggest improvement has come from a fresher defense thus far.  The Falcons were 24th in the NFL last season in time of possession, holding onto the ball for 29 minutes a game.  This year they’re 6th with 33 minutes per game.

• Know your opponent: Dallas is different than in recent years in that their defense has become a strength on the team.  Dallas is currently 3rd overall in the NFL in total defense, and 8th in opponents third down conversion.  They are currently first in the NFL in time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 39 minutes per game.

• Last in the NFL in time of possession: the Philadelphia Eagles at 22 minutes per game.  In their loss to Dallas, the Eagles held onto the ball for just 19 minutes and 30 seconds.

• (ESPN Stats & Info) DeMarco Murray is the 1st defending rushing champ in NFL to have 11 or fewer rushing yards in the first two games since Doug Russell of the Cardinals in 1936.

• (USA Today – For the Win) Since 1960, DeMarco Murray has the fewest yards after 20 carries than any NFL running back.  Previous low was Broncos RB Montee Ball, who had 38 yards on 20 carries. 

• DeMarco Murray has 21 attempts for 11 yards on the season.  Last year in Dallas, his first 21 attempts gained him 118 yards.  It took him just two carries in Dallas in 2014 to gain more yards (13) than he currently has.

• (Nola.com – Evan Woodbury) The New Orleans Saints have lost six straight games at the Super Dome.  That is their longest losing streak in the building since 1980, when the team had a 10 game losing streak that actually started in the 1979 season. 

• Where the NFL is in 2015: Nine NFL running backs were given at least 20 carries thus far in week two.  Cardinal Chris Johnson (20-72 yds), Packer James Starks (20-95 yds), Steeler Deangelo Williams (20-77 yds), Buccaneer Doug Martin (21-78 yds) and Jaguar TJ Yeldon (25-70 yds) were among those who did not reach the 100 yard barrier.  The Bengals Giovani Bernard (20-123 yds) and Viking Adrian Peterson (29-134 yds) were the only two who went over 100 yards.  Redskins running back Matt Jones ran for 123 yds on just 19 carries.  Teams with 20 carry running backs went 8-1, as the league uses the run to close out games.  Only a Chiefs meltdown kept the league will 20 carry backs from going 9-0.

NFL & CFB Notes 9/19 - 9/20

Ole Mississippi at Alabama

This is the rematch game where Alabama is in a spot they are seldom in, they are the team seeking revenge.  Ole Miss defeated them at home last year 23-17.  But there’s so much more intrigue to this matchup.  And this also puts Alabama in a place they’re seldom in, Ole Miss has more high-end NFL talent than Alabama does.

Let’s go back to national signing day of 2013.  Ole Miss put together one of the top signing classes in the country.  Defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche and receiver Laquan Treadwell were part of that class and our projected to be first round picks next April.  The same goes for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, who was expected to sign with Georgia before switching his commitment on signing day.

Situations like this happen all the time, especially in the SEC.  But those in the Georgia program did find it to be an odd situation.  Fast forward to today; as the NCAA is investigating Tunsil for receiving impermissible benefits as part of his recruitment.

Tunsil won’t be on the field to help against Alabama’s dangerous front seven.  He may not play another college football game again.  Considering that Ole Miss has four first round picks on their team in Tunsil, Nkemdiche, Treadwell and safety Tony Conner, they have the talent to beat Alabama.  It’ll be interesting to see if the difference in this game is how Ole Miss handles missing the nation’s best offensive lineman. 

 

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame

Georgia Tech runs the football.  They run at you with a maddening offense that looks like football from the 70’s and 80’s.  Paul Johnson’s offense has thus far averaged 439 yards of rushing per game while beating up on two cupcakes this year.

While Notre Dame won’t have Malik Zaire, this game is still about defending Tech’s running game.  Thus far in games against Texas and Virginia, Notre Dame is ranked 24th in the country against the run and has limited teams to less than 100 yards rushing on average.

Ga Tech is 4-2 in their last six games against ranked opponents, losing only to Duke and Florida State.  Check out their point totals in those games: 21, 56, 28, 30, 35 and 49.  That 49 point total came against a Mississippi State team who was recognized for their defense in the Orange Bowl. 

I believe Notre Dame is a more talented team.  But Georgia Tech has been consistently beating more talented teams, especially with Justin Thomas at quarterback.  It should be a fantastic matchup of styles in South Bend.
 

BYU at UCLA

I bought into UCLA last year because I felt they were one of the most talented teams in the Pac 12 and could win a playoff game.  Thus far in 2015, I still believe they are a team in which their talent overwhelms their opponents each weekend.  Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, is just another example of the types of guys playing football for UCLA right now.

There was a time in College Football where freshman couldn’t lead teams to victory, and experience above all mattered under center.  Because of the development of young passers around the country and spread offense characteristics, that is simply no longer the case.  First-time starters have had tremendous success recently in College Football.

Jameis Winston, Nick Marshall, Everette Golson, Cam Newton, AJ McCarron: all guys who have gotten their teams to Nationa Championship games as first-year starters.

After a fantastic debut against Virginia, Rosen was just okay against UNLV.  But with UCLA’s defense, Rosen doesn’t have to shine each week.  The Bruins are 21st in the country overall. 

BYU had a solid performance against the Boise State defense that is proving to be one of the better defenses in the country.  But you have to imagine that the BYU magic can’t go for three straight games.  For as much as losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill hurt, new quarterback Tanner Mangum has been just as capable along with being a stronger passer.
 

Patriots at Bills

This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the NFL weekend because it features the Super Bowl Champions vs and old nemesis in Rex Ryan of the Buffalo Bills.  It’s interesting how Ryan has moved from the Jets to the Bills, yet still has a formula in a strong defensive front and super defensive backs to give the Patriots problems.

In 2014, the Patriots won 12 games in the regular season.  10 of those games were by an average of 21 points.  In their two remaining wins over the Jets, they won by a total of three points.  Ponder that, beat opponents by three touchdowns, but the Jets by a total of three points.

In 2013 the Patriots two wins vs the Jets were by a total of six points.  Throughout the years you consistently see this between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick. 

This history is why I believe the Bills are depending on Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.  Taylor was efficient against the Colts, and avoided making major mistakes.  His added dimension of running the football can be the difference in a tight ball game. 

I’m very interested to see if a very young Patriots offensive line can handle one of the best two defensive lines in the NFL.

Seahawks at Packers

Considering how good the Packers and Seahawks have been in recent years, you expect to get a yearly matchup in the regular season and the playoffs.  What’s been such dumb luck as far as the regular season is that Rodgers’ Packers are finally getting the Seahawks at Lambeau Field.

Since the Seahawks drafted quarterback Russell Wilson and became the team they are recognized for, the Packers have lost all three of their matchups with the Seahawks.  Every one of those games, including last year’s NFC title game, has been in noisy Seattle.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s highest rated quarterback in history.  His greatness has been enough in most games to lead the Packers to victories and a championship.  But his success against Seattle in the last few seasons has been very limited.

Last season the Packers lost to Seattle to open up the season, the 81.5 QB rating posted by Aaron Rodgers was his 2nd lowest of the season.  Go back to 2012, when Rodgers and the Packers were robbed on the Fail Mary play.  His QB rating that game was the 2nd lowest of that season, amazingly an 81.5.

In last year’s NFC title game, the Seahawks defense limited Rodgers to a rating of 55.8, the 5th lowest of his career.  But it’s going to be a different game at Lambeau, where Rodgers has a QB rating of 112.6.  He’s lost just 10 out of 55 games there over his great career.

Takeaways - NFL Week 1

Some odds and ends from the NFL weekend...

• The New Orleans Saints made trades and signed free agents in hopes of improving one of the worst defenses in the league.  Yesterday they gave up 427 yards to the Arizona Cardinals.  It’s just one week, but last year their 384 yard per game average on defense was good enough for 31st in the league.

• The Carolina Panthers are still playing defense.  They sacked Jaguars quarterback, Blake Bortles, five times.  Offensively, it’s a challenge.  Receiver Ted Ginn Jr. was targeted seven times on Sunday but made just two catches. TGJ's day included dropping a wide open pass that would have created a walk-in touchdown. (below)

Ted Ginn Jr's skillets.

• The Dallas Cowboys formula in 2014 was to hold onto the football and keep their defense off the field.  With RB DeMarco Murray moving onto the Philadelphia Eagles, the question was whether they could still follow that blueprint.  The Cowboys used Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden, and Lance Dunbar to rush for 81 yards on 21 carries.  But they also added a receiving element as the three combined for 12 catches for 132 yards.  Time of possession last night: 37:10.

• Marcus Mariota – Four touchdown passes:  The last rookie to have four touchdown passes in an opening game was our very own Fran Tarkenton in 1961.  The only rookie to throw for more than four touchdowns in a game was Matthew Stafford, who threw for five in a game his rookie season.

• Marcus Mariota 158.3 – Mariota posted a perfect QB rating.  The last rookie to do that while throwing at least 10 passes in a game was in 2012 – RGIII. (USA Today)

• Fun with Sunday Night Football: The Giants were up 10 with eight minutes left in the game.  At that point they had a 95% chance of winning according to the analytics.  When they were up three with 1:37 left, they still held a 94% chance of victory.  However, after kicking the field goal and with the time left on the clock their chances fell to 83%. (per SB Nation and Advanced Football Statistics) 

• Trey Wingo from ESPN with a really fun note on Twitter: In 2014 teams that were a -3 in turnover different were 1-43 for the season.  The other teams yesterday who were a -3 were Indianapolis and Cleveland (-4) 

• Where the NFL is in 2015: Only three players (Matt Forte, Alfred Morris, and DeAngelo Williams) recorded 100 yard rushing games in week one.  None of them were part of teams that won.  Only those three and Jets running back Chris Ivory got 20 carries this week.

• Vegas: Week 1 2014: Favorites were 3-10 against the spread.  Week 1 2015: Favorite were 9-4 vs the spread.  Vegas is calling this the worst disaster for the sports books in 20 years.  A majority of the money was put on Green Bay and Miami.  Both road favorites covered.

• Adam Schefter on Twitter – So far during Week One of the NFL season: Four extra points have been missed.  There were eight missed all of last season.  It’s now a play that matters.  Which was the goal that the NFL wanted.

• San Diego Chargers receiver, Keenan Allen: 15 catches for 166 yards.  That actually ties him for 12th all-time in terms of receptions in a game.  Brandon Marshall holds that record with 21 in December of 2009 while with Denver.  Marshall is also 3rd all-time with an 18 reception game in 2008.

• Odd Stats: Jaguars rookie receiver Rashad Greene had seven receptions on Sunday against the Panthers.  He totaled 28 yards.  Doug Baldwin had seven for 35 yards.  The next lowest receiver who had at least seven catches was Demariyus Thomas, who had seven for 60 yards.

• Teams with bad offensive lines, for your comparisons to what’s happening here in Atlanta…  Russell Wilson was sacked six times yesterday by the Rams.  The Seahawks have gone cheap at offensive line and have gotten Wilson sacked a lot over the last two years.  Wilson’s 41 attempts was a career high yesterday, his previous high was last season with 37 passes attempted.