Blog

NFL & CFB Notes 9/19 - 9/20

Ole Mississippi at Alabama


This is the rematch game where Alabama is in a spot they are seldom in, they are the team seeking revenge.  Ole Miss defeated them at home last year 23-17.  But there’s so much more intrigue to this matchup.  And this also puts Alabama in a place they’re seldom in, Ole Miss has more high-end NFL talent than Alabama does.


Let’s go back to national signing day of 2013.  Ole Miss put together one of the top signing classes in the country.  Defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche and receiver Laquan Treadwell were part of that class and our projected to be first round picks next April.  The same goes for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, who was expected to sign with Georgia before switching his commitment on signing day.


Situations like this happen all the time, especially in the SEC.  But those in the Georgia program did find it to be an odd situation.  Fast forward to today; as the NCAA is investigating Tunsil for receiving impermissible benefits as part of his recruitment.


Tunsil won’t be on the field to help against Alabama’s dangerous front seven.  He may not play another college football game again.  Considering that Ole Miss has four first round picks on their team in Tunsil, Nkemdiche, Treadwell and safety Tony Conner, they have the talent to beat Alabama.  It’ll be interesting to see if the difference in this game is how Ole Miss handles missing the nation’s best offensive lineman. 

 

Georgia Tech at Notre Dame


Georgia Tech runs the football.  They run at you with a maddening offense that looks like football from the 70’s and 80’s.  Paul Johnson’s offense has thus far averaged 439 yards of rushing per game while beating up on two cupcakes this year.


While Notre Dame won’t have Malik Zaire, this game is still about defending Tech’s running game.  Thus far in games against Texas and Virginia, Notre Dame is ranked 24th in the country against the run and has limited teams to less than 100 yards rushing on average.


Ga Tech is 4-2 in their last six games against ranked opponents, losing only to Duke and Florida State.  Check out their point totals in those games: 21, 56, 28, 30, 35 and 49.  That 49 point total came against a Mississippi State team who was recognized for their defense in the Orange Bowl. 


I believe Notre Dame is a more talented team.  But Georgia Tech has been consistently beating more talented teams, especially with Justin Thomas at quarterback.  It should be a fantastic matchup of styles in South Bend.
 


BYU at UCLA


I bought into UCLA last year because I felt they were one of the most talented teams in the Pac 12 and could win a playoff game.  Thus far in 2015, I still believe they are a team in which their talent overwhelms their opponents each weekend.  Freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, is just another example of the types of guys playing football for UCLA right now.

There was a time in College Football where freshman couldn’t lead teams to victory, and experience above all mattered under center.  Because of the development of young passers around the country and spread offense characteristics, that is simply no longer the case.  First-time starters have had tremendous success recently in College Football.

Jameis Winston, Nick Marshall, Everette Golson, Cam Newton, AJ McCarron: all guys who have gotten their teams to Nationa Championship games as first-year starters.


After a fantastic debut against Virginia, Rosen was just okay against UNLV.  But with UCLA’s defense, Rosen doesn’t have to shine each week.  The Bruins are 21st in the country overall. 


BYU had a solid performance against the Boise State defense that is proving to be one of the better defenses in the country.  But you have to imagine that the BYU magic can’t go for three straight games.  For as much as losing starting quarterback Taysom Hill hurt, new quarterback Tanner Mangum has been just as capable along with being a stronger passer.
 


Patriots at Bills


This is one of the most intriguing matchups of the NFL weekend because it features the Super Bowl Champions vs and old nemesis in Rex Ryan of the Buffalo Bills.  It’s interesting how Ryan has moved from the Jets to the Bills, yet still has a formula in a strong defensive front and super defensive backs to give the Patriots problems.

In 2014, the Patriots won 12 games in the regular season.  10 of those games were by an average of 21 points.  In their two remaining wins over the Jets, they won by a total of three points.  Ponder that, beat opponents by three touchdowns, but the Jets by a total of three points.

In 2013 the Patriots two wins vs the Jets were by a total of six points.  Throughout the years you consistently see this between Rex Ryan and Bill Belichick. 

This history is why I believe the Bills are depending on Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.  Taylor was efficient against the Colts, and avoided making major mistakes.  His added dimension of running the football can be the difference in a tight ball game. 

I’m very interested to see if a very young Patriots offensive line can handle one of the best two defensive lines in the NFL.



Seahawks at Packers

Considering how good the Packers and Seahawks have been in recent years, you expect to get a yearly matchup in the regular season and the playoffs.  What’s been such dumb luck as far as the regular season is that Rodgers’ Packers are finally getting the Seahawks at Lambeau Field.

Since the Seahawks drafted quarterback Russell Wilson and became the team they are recognized for, the Packers have lost all three of their matchups with the Seahawks.  Every one of those games, including last year’s NFC title game, has been in noisy Seattle.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s highest rated quarterback in history.  His greatness has been enough in most games to lead the Packers to victories and a championship.  But his success against Seattle in the last few seasons has been very limited.

Last season the Packers lost to Seattle to open up the season, the 81.5 QB rating posted by Aaron Rodgers was his 2nd lowest of the season.  Go back to 2012, when Rodgers and the Packers were robbed on the Fail Mary play.  His QB rating that game was the 2nd lowest of that season, amazingly an 81.5.

In last year’s NFC title game, the Seahawks defense limited Rodgers to a rating of 55.8, the 5th lowest of his career.  But it’s going to be a different game at Lambeau, where Rodgers has a QB rating of 112.6.  He’s lost just 10 out of 55 games there over his great career.