Dan Quinn Will Be a Winner (probably)

Falcons Head Coach Dan Quinn

Having a top quarterback in the NFL makes everything considerably easier. 

I know, that's a ground breaking statement to make to open up a blog post.  Feel free to begin unleashing your sarcasm against me now...

But with the NFL rule changes of 2005, this era of NFL football is defined by quarterbacks.  If your team has a good one, you are typically always amongst the best teams in football...(exclude 2013-2014 Falcons please)

Matt Ryan is among the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL during his career.  If recent history is any indicator, Ryan will make new Falcons coach Dan Quinn a winner.  It's really hard to screw up a team and make them non-competitive as long as they have a upper echelon quarterback...(see 2013-2014 Falcons)

What follows, give or take a win or two, are the coaching records for those who have recently had top NFL quarterbacks.  You'll notice that playoff success often determines which quarterbacks and coaches are highly thought of and which ones are not.  But ALL of them are regular season winners because of the guys playing the toughest position in all of sports.  This bodes well for Dan Quinn...(hopefully)
 

Peyton Manning

• Tony Dungy 85-27 (54-42 in Tampa)

• Jim Caldwell 24-8 with Peyton in Indy

• John Fox 46-18 (73-71 Carolina)

Aaron Rodgers

• Mike McCarthy 94-49

Tom Brady

• Bill Belichick 160-47 (36-44 in Cleveland)

Russell Wilson

• Pete Carroll 36-12

Tony Romo

• Wade Phillips 34-20

• Jason Garrett 41-29

Joe Flacco

• John Harbaugh 72-40

Matt Ryan

• Mike Smith 66-44

Drew Brees

• Sean Payton 80-48

Eli Manning

• Tom Coughlin 96-80

Ben Roethlisberger

• Mike Tomlin 82-46

• Bill Cowher 34-14

Andrew Luck

• Chuck Pagano 33-15

Phillip Rivers

• Mike McCoy 18-14

• Norv Turner 56-40

Preseason CFB Playoff Predictions 2015

Ohio State – Can you score with them, because that’s the key to beating them.  Playing in the Big 10, most can’t.

• 25 of their last 27 games they have scored 30+ points.  That includes 13 straight games dating back to their loss at home to Virginia Tech last season.

• Cardale Jones makes them a power running team.  JT Barrett makes them versatile.  Either way, the Buckeyes averaged 5.8 yards per rush last season.  That’s good enough for 9th in the country.  They were 7th overall in rushing yards per game.  They simply run you over.

• Critical games: Plays Penn State and Michigan State at home.  At Michigan to end the year.

Georgia – The development of their defense, coupled with a strong running game will be the difference. 

• Georgia’s defense improved by nearly 40 yards per game last season under defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt.  The 2014 version of the defense gave up 9 points less a game than they did under Todd Grantham in 2013.  Pruitt has more of his guys in his system, which includes making over the size of their defensive lineman over the last year.

• The Georgia offense averaged the most points in the SEC last year at 40.2, good enough for 8th in the country.  Georgia was 7th in the country averaging 6 yards per rushing attempt, and where 11th overall in the country in rushing yards per game.  HERE is the fun part: Georgia was 3rd overall in the country in 4th quarter points because they wear you down.  4 of their 5 starters on the offensive line are back.  Nick Chubb is okay too.

• The Bulldogs play South Carolina, Alabama and Missouri at home in 2015.  The Tennessee game falls the week after the Bama game, which should provide a challenge.  If the Bulldogs take care of their business they’ll conclude conference play with a key matchup on November 14th at Auburn.  They beat Auburn last year 34-7.

Baylor – The Big 12 features two of the best offenses in the country in Baylor and TCU.  But the schedule this year favors a Baylor team that was the number 1 offense in the country last year.  Quarterbacks thrive in this offense that has been a model of consistency. 

• In 2014, Baylor was 4th overall in the country in passing yards per game with 358 yards per game.  In 2013, they were 4th as well with 354 yards passing per game. 

• The Bears have lost two Big 12 games over the past two seasons.  Both were on the road, losing to West Virginia last season and Oklahoma State in 2013. 

• The big difference in Baylor vs TCU this year is that Baylor has a much more favorable home vs road schedule.  Baylor gets West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Texas at home.  They’re road game vs TCU should be their most difficult which includes K-State and Oklahoma State.

Florida State – This is not a view that FSU or the ACC are better than the Pac-12.  They are not.  This is a view that Florida State will be this year’s Ohio State.  Despite questions at quarterback and running back, there’s just far too much talent at FSU for the ACC to put two losses on the Seminoles.

• The Seminoles have the benefit of time.  While the schedule features home matchups against Miami and Louisville in October, the team should not have to face a difficult road opponent until their October 24th matchup against Georgia Tech.  That will be the Noles 7th game of the season.  Plenty of time to figure out who is the starting quarterback, running back, and playmaker at receiver before their November 7th matchup at Clemson.

• Florida State should be closer defensively to the 2013 version of themselves than the 2014 version.  Last year the Noles were 64th in the country defensively, giving up over 400 yards per game.  In 2013 they were 4th.  The Noles have one of the finest secondary in the country that will allow them to be defensively aggressive this season and see if a 1 loss ACC champion can get a spot in the playoffs.

NFL Training Camp Storylines 2015

Russell Wilson Contract Fun:

The Seattle Seahawks are treating the potential Russell Wilson contract with curiosity.  The contention from around the league, and perhaps in Seattle, is that Wilson is a good player who has a tremendous amount of help around him with his defense and running game.  It makes sense that the franchise would make him play at a high level for another year before franchising him or giving him a big contract. 

But if the team is looking for a show-me season, will it really matter?  The team already traded for TE Jimmy Graham, whose touchdown reception numbers are in the Calvin Johnson/Dez Bryant territory.  Watching Wilson have another good season could be perceived as a product of his enhanced help around him.  The only true test of his value would come if he receives a non-exclusive franchise tag.  How many teams would make the big offer and gladly send two first round picks to Seattle?

The Make or Break Year for Jay Cutler:

John Fox takes over as the new head coach in Chicago.  If Fox’s days without Peyton Manning are any indication, he will probably ask less of quarterback Jay Cutler in the offense.  But if Cutler continues to have problems with turnovers, this is going to be his final year in Chicago.  Here is why:

Cutler counts nearly $17M dollars against the cap in 2015.  Had the team decided to cut or trade him this offseason, he would have counted $30M against the cap.  That’s NFL math that simply doesn’t help a team. 

Come 2016, cutting Cutler would save the team $4M dollars against the cap despite creating $13M dollars in dead money.  If the Bears struggle in 2015, taking that cap hit to restart with a young quarterback makes sense.

The 300 Carries Test:

For years the 300 carry mark for NFL running backs has been a cautionary tale.  Players who venture over this mark tend to have trouble the following seasons as the physical toll is too difficult to take.  Current NFL tank, Marshawn Lynch, carried the ball over 300 times in 2012 for nearly 1,600 yards.  In 2013 he took a similar pounding, but rushed for 300 less yards.

Philadelphia Eagles running back, DeMarco Murray, is now one of the highest paid runners in the league at $8.5M per season.  Last year with the Cowboys, Murray rushed the ball a league-high 392 times, 436 times if you include the postseason.  Those touches don’t even factor in his 61 catches in 2014.  If Murray can stay healthy he will buck a trend that goes back nearly 15 years in the NFL.

Rookie Quarterbacks:

Drafting a quarterback high represents a rebirth of a franchise.  The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tennessee Titans are hoping to return to relevance with the additions of Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota. 

Winston should be set to start week 1, as he was the pro-ready quarterback but wasn’t the quality of athlete that Mariota is.  The young quarterback competition in Nashville should be much more interesting as Zach Mettenberger showed promise last year as a player who could make every throw on the field.  Beating out Mettenberger would setup Mariota to start week 1, but with his development curve coming from Oregon, it may be in his best interest to take a little longer to acclimate to the pro game.