College & NFL Notes 11/1 - 11/2

(2,680) TCU @ West Va: The nation’s number one offense can be found in Fort Worth Texas and is piloted by quarterback Trevone Boykin. Boykin was a player who the team considered moving to receiver after their offensive scheme change, and the coaching staff has to be happy that they didn’t do it. How good has Boykin been? Through seven games he’s accumulated 2,680 total yards. That’s more than 500 yards ahead of Cam Newton’s pace in 2010, and 20 yards better than Johnny Manziel’s insane pace in 2012. Boykin has 21 touchdowns and 3 ints. Manziel at this point had 14 touchdowns and 6 ints. In their only conference road game thus far, TCU scored 58 points in a loss at Baylor. West Virginia is 3-1 at home, and have split their top 10 matchups against Oklahoma (L) and Baylor (W).

(10.6) Auburn @ Ole Miss: Who is going to get more stops in the Auburn @ Ole Miss game? Ole Miss comes into the game with the best defense in college football allowing just 10.5 points per game this season. Against their five SEC opponents thus far, they’ve only given up 10.6 points per game in going 4-1. The most points they’ve surrender thus far this season was on the road at Texas A&M when they gave up 20 points. Auburn’s offense has been fantastic this season but their defense has struggled in recent weeks. Auburn has averaged 35.3 points a game in their last three SEC games, but has given up 36.5 in their past two. Whichever team’s defense can get a few stops will give their team a decided advantage.

(55.7%) Arizona @ Dallas: The Arizona Cardinals are a tough team that’s very well coached. The Cardinals have won with backup quarterbacks and with injuries and suspensions on defense. The most consistent thing they do is stop the run, as they allow the third fewest rushing yards per game. Dallas is #1 in the league at running the football, and they’ll need to whether Tony Romo starts or not. The most impressive statistic for Dallas is that they’re number one in the NFL at converting third downs…55.7%. Whoever starts will have to ride the run game, if it works vs Arizona, and setup manageable third downs.

(6th) Denver @ New England: When the Denver Broncos matchup with the New England Patriots on Sunday it’ll be another example of how there is only one thing that affects elite quarterbacks: pressure. The biggest difference in this Denver team and last year is that the pass rush has returned with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos led the NFL in 2012 with 52 sacks, but fell to 13th last year. This year they’re 6th in the NFL. The Patriots get after quarterbacks to, ranking in the top 10 as well. This game for me will be decided by who can create more issues for the opposing quarterback on third down.

(137.6) Ravens @ Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger is hot. Crazy level quarterbacking hot. In his last two games Big Ben has eight touchdowns against zero interceptions and has thrown for nearly 800 yards. His quarterback rating over the past two games is 137.6. INSANE. The Baltimore Ravens are just 22nd in the NFL against the pass. Look for the Steelers to attempt to continue their aerial circus against the Ravens primary weakness.

Game Review - Lions vs Falcons

Bad teams find a way to lose games. They snatch defeat from the nurturing bosom of victory. I can think of no other way to summarize what happened to the Falcons last Sunday vs. the Detroit Lions. Holding a 21-0 lead in the 2nd half of an NFL game is supposed to be an easy victory. Unfortunately, it ended in a 22-21 loss.

Here is what I took away from the game review:

The Falcons offensive line is improved with Ryan Schraeder starting in place of Gabe Carimi at RT. Schraeder does a better job of dealing with speed off the edge and when he is bull rushed than Carimi did in the past several weeks.
When the Steven Jackson era ends here in Atlanta, we will all wonder why the Falcons didn't want to start and play running backs that can make people miss.
The inside linebacker play has been bad all season, but the average safeties are starting to show up in the game film more and more. Kemal Ishmael is a quality backup. But not a 60-play starter.

Let's take a look at some plays:

3rd and 8 - 13:59 ATL 22 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

The Falcons did a good job in the first half of dealing with the Lions front four. This is a theme that keeps showing up each week: good first half on the offensive line, poor second half. On this 3rd down play, Falcons QB Matt Ryan targeted WR Roddy White. White is running a 20 yard in, so pass protection was key.

This shot shows the completion of the play as White has reached the soft spot in the Lions zone defense. 24 yard completion and a first down.

2nd and goal - 9:31 DET 7 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 Score:

One of the long term goals for this season should be determining whether or not RB Devonta Freeman can handle a 20 touch workload. I love his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and make people miss in addition to his tough running. On this play, the Falcons have setup a quick screen to their right. As you can see, the Falcons have three blockers in the open field to deal with the three oncoming defenders. RT Ryan Schraeder misses his block in the open field, leaving Freeman to have to make a man miss.

Freeman's quickness takes care of the unblocked defender. The result is a seven yard TD catch and a 7-0 lead.

1st and 10 - 3:04 DET 21 yard line (1st QT) 7-0 Falcons Lead:

On this play, WR Roddy White is running a double move on the defending corner. As you can see from the game film, Ryan is well protected once again. When Ryan gets this type of pocket, the offense runs smoothly and points get put on the scoreboard. White draws a pass interference call that sets up a 1st and goal from the one yard line.

3rd and 14 - 6:35 ATL 14 yard line (3rd QT) 21-3 Falcons Lead:

On the Falcons first possession of the 2nd half, the Lions begin to bring pressure regularly. In previous weeks we have seen how the Giants, Bears, and Ravens have had success with T-E stunts and twists. On this play, DL Jason Jones plays an inside game with DT Ndamukong Suh. Suh fires into the outside shoulder of RG Jon Asamoah. Jones comes around Suh and has a free run at QB Matt Ryan.

Ryan quickly runs out of time and delivers an incomplete pass to WR Harry Douglas.

3rd and 25 - 4:48 DET 41 yard line (3rd QT) 21-3 Falcons Lead:

This play changed the entire game. At the very least, the momentum of the game altered on this awful 3rd down play. The Lions were backed up into a 2nd and 35 on their own 31 yard line before this play occurred. That is a situation where only a defensive mistake could bail out the Lions. S Kemal Ishmael gave the Lions just that. On the play, Ishmael splits the difference between the two Lions receivers just as he's supposed to. But when the slot receiver runs his in at the first down marker, Ishmael begins to slow to a stop in his deep zone. WR Golden Tate quickly accelerates past Ishmael and catches the 59 yard touchdown pass.

1st and 10 - :22 ATL 47 yard line (3rd QT) 21-10 Falcons Lead:

This play stands out to me not because of the result, but because you NEVER see this. This is QB Matt Ryan's unicorn, yeti, and tooth fairy wrapped into one play. Ryan's interception on this play was surprising because it was so wildly uncharacteristic. On the play, Ryan is looking to get the ball to WR Harry Douglas in the slot. Two Lions take the route away. WR Julio Jones is wide open but Ryan is looking for more on the play. This is only a three man route, against seven defenders.

Ryan gets flushed to his left and looks for the only receiver on that end of the field. WR Roddy White is open but the Lions rush is closing in on Ryan. Ryan would have been sacked if he attempted to get his feet set and make the downfield throw to White.

QB Matt Ryan throws the ball into the middle of the field where CB Cassius Vaughn is the only player in the area. Vaughn makes the easy interception and sets up another score for the Lions.

2nd and 10 - 2:09 ATL 38 yard line (4th QT) 21-19 Falcons Lead:

I wanted to view the look at two plays in particular because they were related in the minds of the coaching staff. On this play, WR Julio Jones runs the quick screen and gains 22 yards on the play. But what I wanted to look at is the defense that the Lions deployed on the play. As you can see the Lions played man-free. There is just a single-high safety playing centerfield while the remaining defensive backs are in man coverage.

3rd and 10 - 1:50 DET 40 yard line (4th QT) 21-19 Falcons Lead:

Here is where this play and the previous one are related. Coach Mike Smith made the point in his Monday press conference that the Falcons threw the ball on the critical play because they expected to get a similar defense as to what they got when they had the 22 yard completion. Pre-snap, the Lions are in a clear Cover 2 and do not attempt to disguise their defense. The benefit of this scheme is that the defense gets to keep their eyes on the ball. As you can see, both the linebacker and the slot corner have their eyes on QB Matt Ryan as he runs play action.

From another angle, you can see how the Lions quickly attacked the play with their defenders. Its doubtful that the Falcons would have been able to gain enough yards for the first down or make their way into field goal range. But once the pass is dropped, the Falcons stopped the game clock on their own. They set themselves up to grab defeat from victory.

-los

The Day After - NFC South

Teams lose in the NFL. That’s going to happen. What will get a coaching staff in immediate trouble is actively finding ways to lose an NFL game. When you have a lead in an NFL game, the clock is your friend. Perhaps it’s your best friend. But Falcons Coach Mike Smith and the team were not interested in the friendship that the clock provides. Between the Falcons ill-timed penalty that stopped the clock, an ill-timed 3rd down pass, and the curious use of timeouts, the Falcons gave the Lions a healthy amount of time on the clock to beat them. The Lions simply took the opportunity and accommodated them. The biggest concern for the organization in my opinion is that the fan base is now expecting defeat. The fan base can now add a 21 point blown lead to their list of losses they’ve seen this year. Once losing becomes part of your culture, and is expected, change is needed. It’s amazing when the Falcons fans begin to panic when the Lions scored their first touchdown to make it a 21-10 ballgame. In most NFL cities, that’s still a comfortable and defendable margin.

Welcome back to the NFC South race, New Orleans Saints. But to be very honest, even at 2-4, they were had just as good of a chance of winning this as anyone. The Saints used the 2nd half to demolish the Packers to a tune of 44-23 final. With the Packers rash of turnovers, the Saints outscored them 28-7 in the 2nd half. The Saints are not a good defensive football team, as they once again gave up nearly 500 yards of offense (491). The Saints need their offense to make plays in order to give their defense a larger margin of error and allow them to take chances. The Saints ended the four game winning streak for the Packers. More notably, the Saints have now extended their own home winning streak to 11 games and to 14 games in home primetime games since November of 2008. At 3-4, the Saints will have to avoid playing on the road the rest of the year in order to easily win the NFC South. That may be a problem.

I’m not ready to say that the Carolina defense is now back to their 2013 standards. After surrendering 30 points in four of five games, the Panthers held the Seattle Seahawks to just six points until the final minute of the game. In watching multiple films of the Seahawks, they’re a team that lacks receivers who can create space on a consistent basis. The Panthers were able to contain the running opportunities for Seattle and dare them to beat them with their receivers. That planned worked until the final :47 seconds of the game. These two teams combined to go 25-5 last season. Now I see them as being largely toothless offensively with inconsistent defensive play. Thanks to the Panthers tie against the Bengals, they remain as the NFC South division leader.

Tampa. You will have your pick of the top quarterbacks on the board in April 2015. But your problems are deeper than that. This looks like a team that was slapped together based on names, not games. The QB play is OK, not terrible. The run game is ugly. And the defense doesn’t make many plays. Lovie Smith’s first season as head coach is a tough one.

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College & NFL Notes 11/1 - 11/2

Game Review - Lions vs Falcons

The Day After - NFC South