College & NFL Notes 10/25 - 10/26

Here's what I'm watching for this weekend in CFB and the NFL:

(3) – Ole Miss @ LSU: The wild thing about the rise in Mississippi State and Ole Miss is that some traditional powers have to take it in the shorts. That’s LSU. LSU in SEC play have beaten Mississippi State more than any team in program history, going 71-34-3. The team they have the second most amount of wins is Ole Miss, who they have a record of 58-40-4. LSU has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. They have a chance to equal that once again Saturday night. But the last time they lost four was in 2009, and five games in 2008.

(1) – Pac 12: The Pac 12 four 1 loss teams still alive in the CFB Playoffs. Oregon, Arizona State, Arizona, and Utah. Utah hosts USC tonight. Arizona State still plays 3 ranked teams including a road visit to Notre Dame and Arizona. Arizona still plays 3 ranked teams. Oregon though, has only 1 ranked team left on their schedule before the championship game. That’s at Utah.

(-37) – Seattle @ Carolina: If Seattle is going to get their season going again, playing at Carolina might be the right medicine for what ails them. The Carolina Panthers are the best of the worst division in football. The Panthers (3-3-1) have been outscored this season by 37 points. They are the only division leader who is a minus in point differential. The 2013 Green Bay Packers won their division last year with a -11 point differential in going 8-7-1. Before the Packers, the 2011 Super Bowl Champion Giants won their division with a -6 point differential in going 9-7.

(13) – Green Bay @ New Orleans: Which New Orleans Saints team will show up on Sunday night when they take on the Green Bay Packers? The Saints are just 2-4 on the season, but have won both of their home games in unimpressive fashion. But the Saints have two impressive streaks going on right now. They currently have the longest home winning streak in the NFL at 10 straight games. On prime time games at home, they Saints have won 13 straight home games dating back to November of 2008. The Packers on the other hand have won 4 straight, so someone is going to have a streak come to an end.

The Importance of Getting it Right

I have my own specific beliefs in what it takes to build and maintain a consistent winner in the NFL. By the nature of the league, that is one of the most difficult tasks to perform in sports. I can argue for finding and paying a franchise quarterback, allocating specific percentages of the cap to certain positions, and weighting draft picks with positional bonuses. But at the end of the day its really not that complicated to each team's fan base.

Get it right. Just get it right.

The roster turnover in the NFL can sometimes go unnoticed to the fan base from a numbers perspective. That makes sense as we celebrate the first round picks and free agent signings yet pay little attention to those taken as late round draft picks or signed as rookie free agents. The number that's pretty standard in the NFL is that 30% of your roster will change each and every year. Blame it on age, contracts, injury, retirement or all out rebuilds, NFL GM's are under constant pressure to "get it right. Just get it right."

Lets take a look at the 2012 Atlanta Falcons. After a 13-3 season and NFC Championship Game loss, the team set out to get a little younger at a few key positions. By the end of the 2013 season, 27 of the 53 spots on the active roster featured players who were not part of the 2012 roster. That's 51%.

Sure, you could argue that injuries were to blame. That does make sense, but now let's take a look at the difference in the 2013 roster and so far in 2014. As of today, 20 of the 53 spots on the roster have featured players that were not on the roster in 2013. That's 38%. The magical 1/3 of the roster changeover is clearly in effect.

The change goes on everywhere. The 2014 Philadelphia Eagles currently have 19 players on their roster that were not on the division championship team of 2013. That's 36% of the roster. It doesn't matter if you're a winner or a loser. NFL GM's must continue to constantly draft, sign, and build a consistent winner. But for fans, they only have one request:

Get it right. Just get it right.

Game Review - Falcons and Ravens

This Falcons season is not complicated. At 2-5, we've reached a point that feels eerily like last season. The offensive line play is poor, there are limited opportunities for the offensive pieces to shine, and the pass rush is wildly inconsistent. As someone who hosts a Falcons post game show each week, I feel like I'm getting ready to live in my very own version of the film Groundhog Day.

What 2014 is highlighting for the Falcons fan is the importance of line play in the NFL, just as 2013 did. You can have Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, DeMarco Murray, and Matt Ryan on this offense and I firmly believe reaching 21 points would be very difficult. That's what happens when you now start your 2nd LT, 3rd C, 3rd RT, and your LG is nursing a back injury.

Here is what I took away from this game review:

Falcons opponents, dating back to the Giants game, are having success playing games up front.
The interior line for the Falcons doesn't have bad players. But it's playing terribly due to a lack of cohesion. LG Justin Blalock is hurt and RG Jon Asamoah is playing next to a new C seemingly every week. Simple twist plays from the defensive line are causing these guys issues in communication.
Just as in 2013, Matt Ryan has to survive the next nine games in order to have a small success story for the season.

Let's take a look at a few plays:

3rd and 3 - 10:32 ATL 27 yard line (1st QT) 7-0 Ravens Lead:

This is concerning for the Falcons. The Baltimore Ravens decided to challenge the Falcons offensive line on their second possession of the game. The Ravens decide to send a blitz on the play by rushing five defensive players. The Falcons have six blockers on the play. It's simply a matter of counting and communicating. LB Daryl Smith lines up over RG Jon Asamoah but is simply looking to confuse the protection scheme.

On the snap, you'll see that the three Ravens rushing the quarterback. With LB Daryl Smith dropping out of the rush, RT Gabe Carimi and RG Jon Asamoah are left to block #97 DT Timmy Jernigan. LG Justin Blalock doubles LB Pernell McPhee with C Peter Konz, and once that occurs the real problems begin. The confusions leaves just two blockers for the three Ravens rushing QB Matt Ryan.

The play ends in an incomplete pass as S Will Hill hits QB Matt Ryan on the play.

1st and 10 - 8:51 ATL 45 yard line (1st QT) 7-0 Ravens Lead:

This Falcons drive was the best of the first half. But it also points to how poor the line is playing and how little time there is for QB Matt Ryan. This play is going to be a quick throw to RB Freeman in the flat. Ryan did not take a drop on this play. He simply took the snap and immediately shuffled his feet to quickly throw the football. Unfortunately, Ryan takes a punishing hit on the play. The Ravens line up and show that both LB Daryl Smith and DE Deangelo Tyson will attack the A-gap. Again, the count is wrong and the line is confused. LG Justin Blalock doubles NT Brandon Williams on the play. DE Tyson is left with a clear shot right into QB Ryan.

3rd and 10 - 4:23 BAL 17 yard line (1st QT) 7-0 Ravens Lead:

This is not a complicated game up front that the Ravens defense is playing here. The Ravens are using LB CJ Mosley as a pass rusher on this third down play. LB Pernell McPhee has his hand on the ground as an inside pass rusher. On the snap, LB Mosley crashes inside and occupies the attention of the interior line. LB McPhee twists around LB Mosley and finds himself with a clear shot on QB Ryan. Ryan held the ball for an extra count as he searched for an open receiver. The play resulted in a sack-fumble for the Ravens. The best scoring opportunity for the Falcons was ended by this simple game up front.

-los

Front Office Football

Blog

College & NFL Notes 10/25 - 10/26

The Importance of Getting it Right

Game Review - Falcons and Ravens