The Day After - NFC South

I'm not one to make declarative statements about NFL teams based on one game. Or even a couple of games. But we're reaching the point where we have enough data to be able to identify what teams are about. When it comes to the NFC South, its all ugly today.

The Falcons are officially a ball club who's wheels have flown off. Atlanta is now 1-11 in their last 12 road games. But that's a bit misleading. They're actually 0-11 on the road in America. Their one road win since December of 2012 came in Toronto against the Bills last season. Good news: this team plays Detroit in London this Sunday. Technically, this is a home game for the Falcons. The defense is now 30th in the NFL in both yards per game and points per game.

What has happened to the Carolina Panthers defense? When GM Dave Gettleman called his salary cap situation "challenging" last offseason this is what he meant. Carolina have seen multiple starters move on in free agency and have their most explosive pass rusher sitting out for perhaps the season. The Panthers have now given up 30+ points in four of their last five games. Amazingly, their 3-3-1 record is good enough for first place in the NFC South.

I'm often asked when the Saints games with the NFL salary cap will catch up with them. Because of the growth of the cap and some creative management, it technically hasn't. But I'd argue that it has as of this year. The Saints lack that edge that has defined them for the better part of a decade. They've been the team who makes the big play, who takes advantage of your mistake, who has always been a step ahead. That hasn't shown up so far this season. Their turnovers and lack of defense has landed them at 2-4, including 0-4 on the road. Look what they've parted with in recent years: Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma, Malcolm Jenkins, Lance Moore, Darren Sproles, Jermon Bushrod, Brian De La Puente, Jabari Greer...etc. Guys that leave take a piece of your culture with them.

Tampa wins for not losing. A well-timed bye. Well done. First team to 7 may win this thing. So Buccaneers aren't out of this just yet.

College & NFL Notes 10/18-10/19

(8) Notre Dame @ Florida State – How does Notre Dame stay in this ball game? Make it ugly.
Notre Dame has the 8th ranked defense in the country in points. Their formula in 2012 and this year is to have Everette Golson make plays while his defense plays tough. FSU is not what they were offensively last season. They’re 98th in the country in rushing. And the best defense they’ve played thus far was Clemson, who are currently ranked 46th. Notre Dame must get some easy points, have Golson make a play or two.

(1)Stanford @ Arizona State – I love late night Pac 12 football. Love the depth of quarterbacks in this league. Love the unpredictability. But this league is cannibalizing itself from the playoffs. Arizona State has 1 loss, but it was at home and it was a 35 point margin to UCLA. Arizona has 1 loss, but it’s too the wrong team in USC. Oregon has 1 loss and leads their division, but their offensive line is shaky. I think Oregon is the one team…the only team who can reach the playoffs with their remaining schedule. And even that is a dice roll.

(62%) Is running the football back in the NFL? This year we’ve seen a swing back to running in this copycat league. When you look at the football teams who have thrown the ball a lot…62% of the time or more…in recent years you’ve had winners like New Orleans, New England, Atlanta, Indianapolis. That has changed this year:

Five teams have thrown the ball 62%; they have a combined record of 5-23. Of the teams who have a 60-40 split on passing, only 3 of 10 are over .500.
The five teams who have run the ball the most by percentage are 18-10. The 10 teams who have thrown in 57% of the time or less…8 of 10 are .500 or better.

(0)Kansas City @ San Diego – The Chargers are good. They are Super Bowl, number 1 seed in the AFC good right now. It’s still early, but teams that reach November in good shape typically make it to the NFL playoffs. The Chargers are the best 4th quarter defense in the NFL. They’ve given up the fewest 4th quarter points in the league, and have given up zero fourth quarter points at home so far this year.

(Manning) 49ers at Broncos – How good is Peyton Manning at figuring out what you’re doing? The Broncos are 16th in the league in 1st quarter scoring. They are first in 2nd quarter scoring. The Broncos are 31st in the league in 3rd quarter scoring. They are 2nd in 4th quarter scoring.

When Falcons Toughness Died

One day we will look back at the end of this era of Atlanta Falcons football and wonder how it all went so wrong. I've been covering this team since 2004, and I can easily recall the days of joking in the hallways at work, "they won last year, so they won't win this year." There was a time when this franchise had never had back-to-back winning seasons. Thanks to Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith, that silly stat is dead.

But one day we will attempt to pinpoint where things changed for the worse. The playoff shutout in New York, the Julio Jones trade, the fumbled snap verse San Francisco, the Harry Douglas fall, the Steven Jackson signing, going "multiple" on defense, losing various coordinators....all will be moments people will point to. But for me, the playoff loss to Green Bay and the change of direction for this team will always be the point where Falcons toughness died. The run of success didn't die immediately, but it certainly led to 4-12 in 2013 and whatever mess 2014 becomes.

When the Falcons were Tough

No story is ever complete in my mind without taking a look at the data. From 2008-2011, the Atlanta Falcons were a team that looked to grind you down with a commitment to a power run game and an opportunistic defense. Take a look at the percentage of plays that the Falcons ran the football during that time period:

2008: 56% (4.4 avg yards per carry)

2009: 44% (4.2 avg yards per carry)

2010: 46% (3.8 avg yards per carry)

2011: 43% (4.0 avg yards per carry)

What is also worth noting is that the Falcons defense never had outrageous sack totals during this time period. While they were able to create turnovers during some of these seasons, the bigger issue for me was the time of possession for the Falcons. The Falcons offense, with a commitment to a tough, power run game was able to hold onto the football. The strategy allowed the Falcons defense to play harder for a shorter amount of plays. Here is the percentage of time of possession they had during these years:

2008: 51% (12th in NFL)

2009: 50% (16th in NFL)

2010: 55% (2nd in NFL)

2011: 54% (4th in NFL)

The Catastrophic Moment

So what changed? It all happened January 15th of 2011. The Green Bay Packers came into the Georgia Dome on their way to a Super Bowl victory and showed the Falcons what explosive football looked like. They were four and five wide, they were fast, and they scored in bunches. The biggest issue from the game was the inability for the Falcons to pressure and sack Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers was sacked twice, but still completed 31 passes for 366 yards and three touchdowns.

Rather than re-tool with pass rushers to get after passers like Rogers, the Falcons decided they had to "become more explosive". For the 2010 season, the Falcons were 19th in the NFL in completed passes of 20 yards or more. The decision was made and it became the organizational mantra...get more explosive. By April of 2011, the Julio Jones trade was made to reach this goal.

A Change of Direction

At the conclusion of the 2011 season, the Falcons had been shutout on the road against the eventual champion New York Giants. The Falcons were not explosive enough. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey left to become the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, opening up an opportunity for a new direction. The decision was made to hire long-time offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Koetter had shown a commitment to running the football during his time in Jacksonville, but the Jaguars certainly never had the Falcons offensive personnel. Take a look at the rushing totals from 2012-current:

2012: 38% (3.7 avg yards per carry)

2013: 32% (3.9 avg yards per carry)

2014: 36% (4.6 avg yards per carry)

With a shaky Falcons defense, the organization left it to the offense to win ball games. Their cap space is overwhelming weighted towards the offensive side of the football. But the Falcons have been unable, or unwilling to run the football and win the line of scrimmage. That's where toughness comes from. Not from deciding to be tough. Take a look at the time of possession numbers since 2012:

2012: 51% (12th in NFL)

2013: 50% (16th in NFL)

2014: 47% (24th in NFL)

10 more games to go. More change is coming.

-los

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