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Game Review - Bears vs Falcons

The great thing about the NFL is that the storylines during a season continuously change.  That can be for better or for worse.  If you asked me why I believed the Atlanta Falcons would beat the Chicago Bears last Sunday I could only point to the Georgia Dome.  The Falcons have been a good offensive football team playing at home.  They've proven to win shootouts, overcome turnovers, and sometimes win in the wildest of fashions.  None of that happened Sunday against the Bears as the offense only managed 13 points.  The Bears played keep away from the Falcons, allowing the Atlanta offense to run only 54 plays. 

Here is what I took away from this game review:

  • The longer this makeshift line is on the field for the Falcons, the least effective it gets.  60 plays is asking too much.   
  • RT Gabe Carimi is a good swing tackle in this league.  But asking more from him is problematic.  I don't believe that LG Justin Blalock is close to being healthy.  Blalock is limited in his movement and power right now.
  • Once again, RB Antone Smith had another long scoring play.  If the team can set him up for a one-on-one opportunity Smith is going to win.  But he is a liability in solo pass protection.

Let's take a look at a few plays:


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3rd and 10 - 10:03 CHI 34 yard line (1st QT) 0-0 score:

The Falcons took their opening drive down to the Bears end of the field.  Because of the status of the defense, which we've discussed quite a bit, the Falcons need to put as many touchdowns on the board instead of field goals.  On this play, QB Matt Ryan deals with pressure to his left.  LG Justin Blalock has DL Lamar Houston lined up over his outside shoulder.  Houston attacks Blalock's left side and causes Ryan to have to unload the football down the field early.  Ryan made an incredible throw that was nearly caught.  Instead of first and 10, the drive ends in a made field goal.


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1st and 10 - 13:17 ATL 38 yard line (2nd QT) 3-3 score:

RB Antone Smith continues to make big plays each and every week.  Smith is the only player in the league that makes the coaching staff look bad every time he makes a big play.  But the legitimate issue with Smith is that he has a difficult time when he attempts to pick up blitzes in pass protection.  He is more than adequate at chipping DE's and OLB's, but regular playing time potentially puts QB Matt Ryan in harm's way.  On this play Ryan completed a pass downfield.  But Smith had a difficult time holding his ground against the blitz.


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1st and 10 - 13:17 ATL 26 yard line (3rd QT) 13-3 Bears Lead:

This is the challenge for the Falcons.  When given a clean pocket, QB Matt Ryan can pick apart defenses with his weapons in the passing game.  On this play, Ryan completed a 29 yard pass downfield to WR Julio Jones.  As you can see the pocket is formed and Ryan is left to throw without issue.


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3rd and 6 - 11:28 CHI 41 yard line (3rd QT) 13-3 Bears Lead:

While there are issues with giving regular snaps to RB Antone Smith, there are few players in the NFL who can make the plays he's making.  On this 3rd down, the Falcons run a quick screen to get Smith out in space.  RT Gabe Carimi and RG Jon Asamoah get to the edge to pickup the oncoming defenders.  Here is where this play is different than the play against the New York Giants.  The safeties on the play were in a cover 2.  The remaining safety who is highlighted in blue is charged with bringing down Smith.  But he was so fast in space that the safety quickly lost the angle.  Touchdown Smith from 41 yards out.


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1st and 10 - 8:24 ATL 42 yard line (3rd QT) 13-10 Bears Lead:

Here is where things begin to fall apart for the Falcons as they lose the battle up front.  On the play, RT Gabe Carimi is quickly beaten by DL Lamar Houston.  QB Matt Ryan was hit on the play.  The drive ended in a game tying field goal, but the Bears began to have success attacking the right side of the Falcons offensive line.


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3rd and 14 - 4:30 ATL 48 yard line (4th QT) 27-13 Bears Lead:

This would turn into one of the four sacks the Falcons gave up on the afternoon.  DE Willie Young beats RT Carimi to the outside.  RB Jacquizz Rodgers was supposed to chip Young on the play.  Simply put, it wasn't much of an effort. 

 

-los

The Falcons Window - How Fast it Closed

The Atlanta Falcons are currently 2-4 this season.  The Falcons were just 4-12 in 2013 in what was thought to be an anomaly of a season.  Some fans point to the 13-3 season in 2012 and believe that the team is just a move or two away from once again competing in the NFC.  But here is the simple truth:

The window for the Falcons is currently closed. 

That's not ground breaking given the current state of the team.  But what is important to realize is that this is the natural evolution of what happens in the NFL.  Teams typically rise and fall as their veteran talent ages into and out of their primes.  The great part about having a franchise quarterback is that you can get multiple windows to compete for a title.  Allow me to explain this a little further.

The Dallas Cowboys are currently 5-1 and are being held up as a contender.  From 2007 to 2009, the Cowboys were 33-15 including winning the division for two of the three seasons.  The window for that team closed with their playoff loss to the Minnesota Vikings in January of 2010.  Let's take a look at the key components on their roster and how it compares to today.

 

January 2010:

QB - Tony Romo

Leading Rusher: RB - Marion Barber

Starting WRs:  Miles Austin & Roy Williams

Tight End:  Jason Witten

Offensive Line:  Flozell Adams - Kyle Kosier - Andre Gurode - Leonard Davis - Marc Columbo

Leading Tackler: Bradie James

Leading Sacker: DeMarcus Ware

Cornerbacks:  Terrence Newman & Mike Jenkins

Safeties:  Gerald Sensabaugh & Ken Hamlin

 

October 2014:

QB - Tony Romo

Leading Rusher: RB - DeMarco Murray (3rd)

Starting WRs:  Dez Bryant (1st) & Terrence Williams (3rd)

Tight End:  Jason Witten

Offensive Line:  Tyron Smith (1st) - Ronald Leary (UFA) - Travis Frederick (1st) - Zack Martin (1st) - Doug Free (4th)

Leading Tackler: Barry Church (UFA)

Leading Sacker: Henry Melton (FA)

Cornerbacks:  Brandon Carr (FA) & Orlando Scandrick (5th)

Safeties:  Barry Church (UFA) & JJ Wilcox (3rd)

 

Of these 16 key areas, 14 are filled by players who were not on the roster in January of 2010!  Let's now take a look at the NFC Title Game Falcons verse this current version:

 

January 2013:

QB - Matt Ryan

Leading Rusher: RB - Michael Turner

Starting WRs:  Roddy White & Julio Jones

Tight End:  Tony Gonzalez

Offensive Line:  Sam Baker - Justin Blalock - Todd McClure - Garrett Reynolds - Tyson Clabo

Leading Tackler: Stephen Nicholas

Leading Sacker: John Abraham

Cornerbacks:  Asante Samuel & Dunta Robinson

Safeties:  Wiliam Moore & Thomas DeCoud

 

October 2014:

QB - Matt Ryan

Leading Rusher: RB - Steven Jackson (FA)

Starting WRs:  Roddy White & Julio Jones

Tight End:  Levine Toilolo (4th)

Offensive Line:  Jake Matthews (1st) - Justin Blalock - Peter Konz (2nd) - Jon Asamoah (FA) - Gabe Carimi (FA)

Leading Tackler: Paul Worrilow (UFA)

Leading Sacker: Jonathan Massaquoi (7th)

Cornerbacks:  Desmond Trufant (1st) & Robert Alford (2nd)

Safeties:  Dwight Lowery (FA) & Kemal Ishmael (7th)

 

Of the 16 key spots, only four players are currently on the roster from the group that played in the NFC title game.  While a few like LB Sean Weatherspoon, S William Moore, and LT Sam Baker would have been on the roster if not for injury, that's a ton of roster turnover.

But that is the point.  Windows in the NFL open and close for particular groups.  The Falcons window for the group that reached the NFC Title Game is now closed.  With Matt Ryan pulling the trigger, it's a matter of how much more turnover there is going to be before the window for the Falcons re-opens.

-los 

The Day After - NFC South

Here's my quick hit thoughts for the NFC South week 6:

  • Who knew that the Atlanta Falcons biggest advantage in their game against the Chicago Bears would be nullified by kickoff?  The Falcons can normally depend on a loud home crowd that makes communication difficult for their opponents.  Quarterback Matt Ryan pointed out earlier in the week that the best part about returning home after back-to-back road games was the ease of communication.  So much for that.  The Bears fans turned out by the thousands and were audible on the TV broadcast.  Ryan even had to burn a timeout due to crowd noise.  The Bears finished with 478 yards of total offense as the home crowd was unable to make their offensive communication difficult. 

 

  • I'm amazed by the amount of players who still don't know that their are ties in the NFL.  When they occur the looks on multiple faces is pure confusion.  For the Carolina Panthers, getting a tie after surrendering 37 points feels like a nice consolation prize.  The 89 yard TD run by Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard was the kind of play that reminds Falcons fans as to why FS Thomas DeCoud is no longer here.  Open field tackling, bad penalities, special teams breakdowns, all of it was on display for the Panthers.  But a tie is a tie.  And in this NFC South, it works just like a "W". 

 

  • What the hell Tampa?  How do you give up 38 points in the first half to the Baltimore Ravens?  I like Baltimore this year, but no one gives up 38 points in a half right?!  I thought you couldn't play a poorer first half than what occurred in Atlanta when the Buccaneers gave up 34 points.  I was wrong, clearly wrong.  In a league that's designed for parity and to have games come down to one score, you're ruining the grand design. 

 

  • Good for New Orleans.  The bye week moved them into sole possession of 2nd place in the NFC South.  What. A. Division.