Blog

College & NFL Notes 10/11 - 10/12

Here's what I'm paying attention to this weekend:

  • 71.  Oregon vs UCLA – For two teams with Pac 12 and playoff dreams this is the 2nd highest point total in Vegas this weekend.  These two teams are the highest ranked teams at the bottom of the defensive rankings in college football.  UCLA is ranked 89th in yards, Oregon is 104th.  Whoever loses is eliminated from CFB playoffs.  But neither plays enough D to be a factor.

 

  • (weird things)  Auburn @Miss State and Ole Miss @Texas A&M – The Brandon Adams Theorem.  For years a co-host of mine in Atlanta has sworn by the SEC theory that an emotional win is regularly followed by a loss the next weekend.  Look at 2013 Auburn as an example.  The win at home in the final minute against Mississippi State, only to go on the road the next week and get whipped by LSU.  In 2012, Alabama gets a come from behind victory over LSU and follows that up by laying a first half off vs. Texas A&M.  That game was a loss and won the Heisman for Johnny Manziel.  Watch for the road let down games today!

 

  • 93 - TCU @ Baylor.  Over the last three seasons, top 25’s have gone to die in Waco.  The Bears have been 6-0 at home vs top 25 teams including Oklahoma, K-State, TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma State.  Last year Baylor outscored two top 25 opponents at home by a total of 49 points.  Over the past six games, that’s 93 points.

 

  • 58 - Cowboys @ Seahawks.  Which Seahawks run defense will show up on Sunday?  The Seahawks are giving up only 58 rushing yards per game on average so far at home.  Green Bay is ranked 25th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, Denver 29th, so the Cowboys will be a better challenge as they’re 2nd in the league in rush yards per game.  During 2013, the Seahawks gave up an average of 100.9 rushing yards per game at home.  The Cowboys must go over that.  The only loss in the past 18 games for Seattle was Arizona, who rushed for 139 and won time of possession.

 

  • 7 - Giants @ Eagles.  The Eagles have been bailed out by their defense and special teams over the past two weeks.  The Eagles have turned the ball over 7 times over the past two games managed to split those games.  3 of those were Nick Foles interceptions, after 3 straight 300 yard passing games to open up the season, Foles is only averaging 202 yards per game over his past 2 ball games.

Enemy Lines - Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler

This week the 2-3 Chicago Bears show up to the Georgia Dome for their matchup with the 2-3 Atlanta Falcons.  Despite the identical records, these teams feel wildly different don't they?  The Falcons are a consistent offense that can be undone by issues and continuity along their offensive line.  The Falcons defense, is just bad.

As for the Chicago Bears, the team seems to play at the whims of quarterback Jay Cutler.  The Bears defense has improved to 21st in the league in yards this season in comparison to 30th in 2013.  But because the Bears have a relatively small interest in running the football, the team is subject to which Jay Cutler shows up on game day. 

Cutler has thrown four interceptions over the last two games, both losses to the Packers and Panthers respectively.  The Falcons will be in much better position to win the game Sunday if "Bad Jay Cutler" shows up.  Here is a quick look at his most recent interceptions:

Click to Enlarge:

A common theme for Cutler's throws over the past two games is being late over the middle.  On this play, Cutler is down 7-0 in a 3rd and 10 situation.  He identifies that WR Brandon Marshall is being defended down the seam by a LB in the Panthers zone coverage.  Cutler believes in his big receivers, and will attempt to throw them open even when the coverage is solid.  Marshall was unable to come up with this pass as it is intercepted after deflection.

Click to Enlarge:

This is the type of situation that has made Jay Cutler a maddening player.  The Bears hold a 24-21 lead and are driving to a game-controlling score.  On this 2nd and 10, Cutler comes back over the middle with a pass to WR Santonio Holmes.  With a LB taking away the easy throw, Cutler attempts to deliver the ball high as he does with his bigger receivers.  The pass sails on Cutler into the waiting arms of FS Thomas DeCoud.

Click to Enlarge:

In the Packers game, Cutler and the Bears were trailing 24-17.  With the team on the plus side of the 50 yard line, Cutler drops back on first and 10.  Cutler again throws a pick as he attempts to get the ball to WR Josh Morgan.  It appears that opposing defenses are immediately jumping the routes run by Bears slot receivers as soon as Cutler looks to his left.  Once he comes back to the route on his right, Matthews makes an easy interception.

Click to Enlarge:

Click to Enlarge:

There is another aspect that is causing QB Jay Cutler to turn the ball over.  He has not been on the same page with his receivers, namely WR Brandon Marshall.  Injuries have reduced Marshall's ability to practice regularly, and while talented, this is an area that the Falcons can take advantage of.  On the play above, Cutler is attempting to throw a 15 yard out to Marshall.  Marshall reaches the top of his route fakes the out, and than takes his route up the field.  Cutler throws the out into the waiting arms of CB Shields.

-los

All of Your Goals Are In Front of You - CFB Playoffs

After a wild weekend in College Football, multiple fan bases are left to wonder if their dreams of making the playoffs are now over.  I’ve been adamant that if you use history as your indicator you will find that losing a regular season game is not a playoff killer.  In some cases, you don’t even have to win your conference! 

I went back to 2004 and looked at the final BCS standings before bowl season.  I wanted to see the top four teams in the rankings and see what types of seasons they put together.  While it’s not a perfect predictor of what the playoff committee will do, it’s easy to imagine how the arguments will play out. 

For instance, in 2013 Alabama was ranked 3rd in the standings despite having lost their final game to Auburn and failing to win their division.  Florida State was 13-0 and a clear #1, while Auburn, Alabama, and Michigan State each had one loss.  If this same situation played out today, the conference champion that would have to win the argument would be an 11-2 Stanford team.  Or an 11-1 Baylor team that lost to Oklahoma State 49-17.

In 2012, Florida found themselves in the top four after Georgia lost the SEC Title Game to Alabama.  With an 11-1 record, Florida was another recent team that found themselves in a highly rated position without winning their division.  Big 12 Champion Kansas State was 11-1 but had lost at Baylor 52-24.  In comparison, Florida had lost to Georgia 17-9.

You will find these sorts of scenarios playing out regularly.  Since 2004:

  • 9 of the 40 teams would be ranked in the top four without having won their conference.
  • 24 of the 40 teams would be ranked in the top four with at least one loss.

**indicates teams that did not win their conference.

 

2013:

Florida State 13-0

Auburn 12-1

**Alabama 11-1

Michigan State 12-1

 

2012:

Notre Dame 12-0

Alabama 12-1

**Florida 11-1

Oregon 11-1

 

2011:

LSU 13-0

**Alabama 11-1

Oklahoma State 11-1

Stanford 11-1

 

2010:

Auburn 13-0

Oregon 12-0

TCU 12-0

Stanford 11-1

 

2009:

Alabama 13-0

Texas 13-0

Cincinnati 12-0

TCU 12-0

 

2008:

Oklahoma 12-1

Florida 12-1

**Texas 11-1

**Alabama 12-1

 

2007:

Ohio State 11-1

LSU 11-2

Virginia Tech 11-2

Oklahoma 11-2

 

2006:

Ohio State 12-0

Florida 12-1

**Michigan 11-1

**LSU 10-2

 

2005:

USC 12-0

Texas 12-0

**Penn State 10-1

Ohio State 9-2

 

2004:

USC 12-0

Oklahoma 12-0

Auburn 12-0

**Texas 10-1