The Day After - NFC South

Here's some quick hit thoughts for the NFC South after NFL Week 4.

• The Falcons are one of the few teams in the NFL that choose to “go heavy” at the running back position on their 46 man game day roster.  The team once again had five active backs (Jackson, Freeman, Rodgers, Smith and DiMarco) but only gave one carry to Rodgers and just two to Freeman.  With only seven active offensive linemen, the Falcons were forced to play Toilolo at RT once the injuries began to mount.  Moving forward, I’m curious if this team will deactivate one of their running backs to give their banged up offensive line a little more help.

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are simply a better team with Mike Glennon at quarterback.  Glennon may not be a franchise quarterback, but he’s had a respectable 84.1 QB rating for his young career.  The Bucs needed every bit of the 302 yards he passed for in order to beat Pittsburgh on the road.  At 1-3, they’re not quite out of the race for the NFC South despite several dreadful performances.

• When you look over the career numbers for Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, you find that 2013 was the anomaly year in his time calling plays.  Ryan has only coached one other top 10 defense.  That was a Raiders team that went 2-14 as most of their opponents could be offensively conservative and win.  The 2014 Saints defense is currently 27th in points allowed and 29th in yards.

• The story of the 2014 Carolina Panthers will be written like this: the offensive line couldn’t keep Cam Newton healthy.  Newton doesn’t look right, and he’s constantly dealing with pressure from the pass rush.  And over the past two weeks, the Panthers defense hasn’t been up to their early season standard.  The Panthers have given up 38 and 37 points over the past couple of weeks.  Some of that has been mediocre special teams play as well.   

College & NFL Notes 9/27 - 9/28

• Arkansas vs Texas A&M – Why would Arkansas vs Texas A&M be a national 3:30 game?  Last season Texas A&M played three sisters of the poor: Rice, Sam Houston State, and SMU.  They won by a combined score of 159-72.  Then they played Arkansas: 45-33.  The hogs rushed for over 200 yards but lost in part due to 2 interceptions thrown.  Neutral site game, this is set to be a closer ball game than expected.

• Stanford at Washington – For a 2nd straight year, Washington is 4-0 as they begin conference play.  Last year they ended up dropping a 31-28 game on the road to Stanford, which led to a three game losing streak.  In 2012, a 7-6 Washington team beat Stanford 17-13.  If Stanford is going to stay in this playoff race and Pac 12 race, winning this road game is their season.  Washington, under Chris Peterson, is looking to take that next step to the 10 win season territory.  That’s how pivotal this game is for both teams.

• Starting 3-1 in the NFL – 34 of 58 teams - The Atlanta Falcons are one of 11 NFL teams who currently sit at 2-1 and are looking to reach the 3-1 mark by the end of this week’s play.  New England, Dallas, Baltimore, Carolina, Chicago, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo and Houston are among the group that realizes that their playoff chances improve significantly with a win on Sunday.  Since 2005, 58 teams have started an NFL season with a 3-1 record.  34 of those teams, roughly 59%, of those 3-1 teams made the NFL playoffs.

• Eagles at 49ers – The 49ers found themselves in a similar position last season when they had to go on the road with a 1-2 record.  They won convincingly at St. Louis 35-11.  That was the only other time under Jim Harbaugh that the team was under .500.  Philadelphia is giving the league something different to deal with.  Philadelphia lead the league in rushing last year and were 9th in passing yards.  This year the team, without DeSean Jackson, is 3rd in passing yards but is now just 19th in rushing yards.  If there is a way to take advantage of San Francisco right now, it’s through the air.

• Saints at Cowboys – This game comes down to whether or not the Cowboys can shorten the game and get off the field on 3rd down.  2013: New Orleans beats Dallas 49-17 (40 first downs, NFL record – 625 yards of offense) (29th in the league on 3rd down 43.3%)2012: New Orleans beats Dalllas in Dallas 34-31 (562 yards of offense) (23rd in league on 3rd down – 40.3%)  2014: 48.6% (27th) - but they’re defending fewer plays and have already had two games with multiple interceptions.  If the Cowboys are to hang around and give themselves a chance to win, they must continue to run the football and play keep-away from Drew Brees.  Dallas has been unable to pressure the quarterback with their front four, so putting the Saints into tough down and distances is paramount. 

Starting 3-1 is great, but no playoff guarantee.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of 11 NFL teams who currently sit at 2-1 and are looking to reach the 3-1 mark by the end of this week’s play.  New England, Dallas, Baltimore, Carolina, Chicago, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo and Houston are among the group that realizes that their playoff chances improve significantly with a win on Sunday.

Since 2005, 58 teams have started an NFL season with a 3-1 record.  34 of those teams, roughly 59%, of those 3-1 teams made the NFL playoffs.  The only season in recent memory that hurts the average was actually the 2013 NFL Season.  That year, five teams started the season with a 3-1 record.  But only one, Indianapolis, made the playoffs.  Detroit, Chicago, Tennessee and Miami were each left out of post season play despite their solid starts.

Here’s how a 3-1 start breaks down by year in terms of making the playoffs:
2012 – 4 of 7
2011 – 6 of 10
2010 – 8 of 9
2009 – 4 of 6
2008 – 2 of 6
2007 – 3 of 4
2006 – 4 of 7
2005 – 2 of 4

As far as the Atlanta Falcons, they have had three 3-1 starts since 2005.  The 2010 team started 3-1 on the way to a 13-3 season.  But they also had 3-1 starts in 2006 and 2005.  In those two years they failed to make the NFL Playoffs.