College & NFL Notes 9/20 - 9/21

This week we get some interesting conference matchups in CFB and a Super Bowl rematch.

Florida at Alabama. Will Muschamp isn’t Florida material. 4-11 vs Top 25 teams. And his defense has to be nearly perfect. Muschamp is just 4-11 vs top 25 teams, 2-4 vs top 10 teams. In 2012 Florida was 11-2 under Muschamp. Defense gave up 13 points a game to BCS opponents. Went 4-2 vs top 25. In 2013, defense gave up 22 points per game. 30 to Kentucky in a triple OT game at home. The defense has to be elite because the offense has been wildly inconsistent since Muschamp arrived.

Clemson at FSU – FSU is mean at home. They’ve won their last 9 home games by an average of 45 points. How do (get close) to beating them? (last lost, Nov – 2012 to Florida) You have to run the football well and contain Jameis Winston. FSU is doing that on their own by keeping him from playing in the first half. The two closet games they’ve played since 2013 were against Oklahoma State and Auburn. Ok St Rushes for 161 yards. – Held Winston to his 3rd lowest rated passing game of college career. Lost 37-31. Auburn Rushes for 232 yards. – Held Winston to 2nd lowest rated passing game of college career. Lost 34-31

Denver at Seattle. Calling Russell Wilson a bus driver is silly. The offense continues to expand under his leadership. Wilson is averaging 27 passes a game so far, a career high. The team has typically kept him to 25 per game for his career. The difference is that Wilson is playing the best football of his career. His 114 QB rating is a jump from his 101 last season and 100 his rookie year. He’s completing 68% of his passes, also a career high. Percy Harvin is the difference. He’s averaging…14 yards per rush.

Steelers at Panthers. The loss of receivers in Carolina was greatly exaggerated. Kelvin Benjamin is averaging 17 yards a catch. That’s Antonio Brown – Jeremy Maclin territory. Last year Ted Ginn averaged 15 yards a catch as the Panthers home run hitter. Cam Newton continues to throw passes to TE Greg Olson and lean on his run game. Carolina is 2nd in the NFL, giving up 10 points per game. Their front 7, even without Greg Hardy is formidable. For all the talk about the Cowboys, the Steelers are 8-8 over the past two seasons. They’re middle of the road in almost every major category so far this season. They go to 1-2 Sunday Night.

College & NFL Notes 9/13 - 9/14

Georgia VS South Carolina - RB Todd Gurley has had 20 carries in a game just seven times in his 25 career games. Four of those seven came in SEC conference games. Gurley did have 30 carries against South Carolina 2013 so you can expect to see him get a heavy load against the Gamecocks. As for South Carolina, they'll run all day if they get a chance. During his career at South Carolina, RB Marcus Lattimore had 37, 27, and 24 carries against Georgia.

Eli Manning, might be done as a player in the NFL. (4TD/11iNT) (89/162) 55%. 986 yards. Eli’s rating over his last five games in 53.2…Geno Smith was 66.5 for 2013. Tebow is 75.3 for his career. Manning had a 69.4 QB passer rating in 2013, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. With all of the changes up front you’d expect some struggles but Eli is just an 81.1 rated passer for his career. That’s basically Andy Dalton, so it was never Brees-Brady-Rodgers level…sometimes a hot D and a couple rings make you think someone is more. – Cardinals were First in run defense last season, 2nd this year. You have to throw to beat them…good luck.

The Philadelphia Eagles have their work cut for them this weekend because Andrew Luck is night and day home and road. Luck is 14-3 at home over his career including the playoffs. Over his last 3 games at home vs playoff teams, KC, Denver, Seattle, Luck 3-0 and has a 100 QB rating. (9 TDs/3 ints)…On the road, Luck is 9-10 as a starter.

The 49ers are a team dealing with injuries and suspensions to their defense. While they’ve been good at putting pressure on quarterbacks, they’ve been elite at run defense over the past three seasons….but that might be changing. Last week though, Dallas RB DeMarco Murray went for 118 yards on 22 carries. That’s the first 100 yard rusher they’ve allowed since December of 2012…a total of 18 regular season ball games. They see Matt Forte this week…so we’ll learn a little more about what they are defensively in 2014.

(10-1) The Dallas identity has to change. But they can’t get out of their own way; maybe their quarterback just can’t be patient. Dallas has been 8-8 over the past 3 seasons...but until last week they were 10-0 when they give the ball to DeMarco Murray 20 times a game running the ball. Last week was the first time they’ve lost a game since 2011 in which Murray got 20 carries. With three first round picks on their offensive line, this team can run the football. It needs to run the football. It won’t run the football.

Here's what is on my mind for CFB Week 2 and the opening of the NFL Season.

Michigan State vs Oregon: How good is Michigan State D over the past two years? In 2013 they were 3-1 vs top 25 teams and allowed only 17 pts per game. In 2012 they were nearly as good by only giving up 19 points per game. Oregon since losing Chip Kelly has lost some production offensively. In 2012 Oregon averaged 43 points per game when playing top 25 teams. That averaged moved to 36 points per game in 2013. If Michigan State can grind it out, they'll stay in the game. If Oregon separates at any point they'll be tough to catch.

USC vs Stanford: The Cardinal are SEC easy to figure out how they win and what they do. They run the football, run the football, than run the football some more. In their three losses last season they ran for 515 yards but turned the ball over a total of six times. In order to beat USC today, Stanford must hold onto the football and rush for over 150 yards.

The College Football Playoff: This weekend won't eliminate anyone. More than likely. History tells us so. Since 2006, four National Champions have lost at least one game during the regular season. 2006 Florida, 2007 LSU, 2008 Florida, and 2011 Alabama all completed the task. The bigger deal here is that losing a game will not eliminate most highly ranked teams from the playoffs.

49ers at Cowboys: 27 points per game normally leads you to reaching the playoffs. Some teams HAVE to score in order to help out a poor defense. The Cowboys are in this boat, but they're actually better (10-0) when they slow the game down. That's their record when the team gives the ball to RB DeMarco Murray over 20 times per game.

Colts at Broncos: Andrew Luck, is the ultimate bus driver right now. Just four games where he's thrown 3 TDs or more over 2 years. But 14-3 when he throws more TDs than touchdowns in a game.