Alabama (14.5) at Auburn
For those people hoping that Auburn can give Alabama a 2nd loss and ruin the SEC’s chances of returning to the college football playoffs, don’t bet on it. The idea that this is a rivalry game and anything can happen goes out the window today. Alabama has won 5 of the past 7 of these, with Auburn’s only wins coming with Cam Newton and off the kick-six during Auburn’s miracle season.
Since 2008, Auburn has been beaten in this game by 36, 28, 49, and 11. When they lost by 11, they gave up 55 points. Expect Alabama to roll into the SEC title game with an 11 victory.
Ohio State at Michigan (even)
At one point this season, Michigan had the hottest defense in America. While the Wolverines haven’t been shutting out teams like they did earlier this season, they’ve given up just 23 points per game (excluding OT) in their last five ball games.
For the Buckeyes, can they put together enough offense to push the Wolverines into an uncomfortable shootout? If your looking for a head coach to hire at your program, I present to you the resume of Houston Cougars coach Tom Hermann. Under his guidance last year, Hermann had the Buckeyes averaging 45 points per game, and that’s with 3 different quarterbacks over the course of the season.
This year, Ohio State state is now by nearly two touchdowns per game, averaging 34 points per game. Their offense is down about 85 yards per game. Everyone was waiting all year for when Ohio State was going to put things together offensively. The problem is that without Hermann, THIS IS THE Ohio State offense.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (-7)
We talked about how this game was the key to the Big 12 getting a playoff team three weeks ago. Nowthat we’re here, it’s exactly that. Oklahoma currently sits in the 3 position for the college football playoffs, and their recent schedule has helped imensly.
Three weeks ago, Oklahoma had the 57th ranked strength of schedule in the country. At the time, Notre Dame was 12th. But because of OU’s recent run, Oklahoma now finds themselves with the 35th ranked schedule in the country, and Notre Dame is now 29th. When the two teams are compared for the final rankings, this is why Oklahoma will stay ahead of Notre Dame assuming a win against Oklahoma State.
The health of Baker Mayfield will be the key, as he practice all week this week. For a team avergaing over 50 points a game and over 600 yards, having Mayfield off the field last week was glaring. Oklahoma scored 23 points with Mayfield on the field, but just 7 in the half against TCU when he was off the field.
Vikings at Falcons
There is good new and bad news for the Atlanta Falcons. The good news is that the NFL’s leading rusher heads to the Georgia Dome and must face a defense that is #1 in the league in stopping the run. The Falcons have spent all year selling out and making it a point to opposing teams that they must throw the ball to win the game. The bad news is that the Falcons have made enough mistakes to aid them in losing 4 of their last 5, including 3 in a row.
The Falcons have spent the better part of a decade being on of those teams in the NFL who will not beat themselves. Under new coach Dan Quinn, the Falcons have been attempted to emulate the ultra-aggressive penalty style that the Seattle Seahawks have played with in recent years. The problem is that the Falcons don’t have the talent to overcome their own mistakes.
The Falcons are on pace to committ 110 penalties this season and turn the ball over 31 times. Both would be the highest since 2007 when Michael Vick went to prison and Bobby Petrino was on the sidelines. The Falcons offense has averaged just 18 points over the last five games, so the team must reduce their own mistakes and find another touchdown offensively to beat the underdog Vikings.
Patriots at Broncos
The New England Patriots have a tried and true formula this year: score a bunch of points and make life really tough on your offense. With the Patriots now having multiple receivers ailing, this game is fascinating to see if they can keep up their scoring.
Receivers Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola are hurting, with Edelman out until perhaps the playoffs. The Patriots have been one of the fastest starters offensively in the league, averaging the 4th most points in the league in the first quarter...and the 2nd most in the 3rd quarter. Fast starts is what they do.
Denver is #1 in total defense, they’re #4 in 3rd down defense...and here’s where they are so tough...The Broncos sack quarterbacks on nearly 10% of their drop backs. That’s going to be tough for Tom Brady to deal with.
The Broncos aren’t asking a ton out of Brock Osweiler. It’s because of what they can do defensively that allows them to be very conservative. I expect that on Sunday Night.