Dan Quinn Setup for Success?

Courtesy CBS Sports.com

New Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn joins a list of 39 first-time NFL coaching hires since 2008. The Falcons chose to follow a formula, hiring a respected coordinator without head coaching experience, that brought them the very successful Mike Smith. But what has the recent history been when it comes to hiring coaches who have never been a head coach in the NFL before?  

Of the 36 first-year head coaches hired since 2008, only one has won a Super Bowl -- Raves coach John Harbaugh.

But it goes deeper than that. Of those 36 first-year head coaches, only eight of them were able to win their division during their coaching tenure. The league is littered with guys who got the job and failed at it.

I don't question the Falcons hire. I believe Dan Quinn is exactly what they needed for this market and this franchise. But recent history does show you why many owners are unwilling to hire an unknown commodity rather than going with a veteran NFL head coach.

First year records are listed:

2014:
Bill O’Brien (Houston) 9-7
Mike Pettine (Cle) 7-9
Jay Gruden (Wash) 4-12
Mike Zimmer (Minn) 7-9
27-37 (no playoffs)

2013:
Chip Kelly (Philadelphia) 10-6
Marc Trestman (Chi) 8-8
Gus Bradley (Jax) 2-14
Mike McCoy (SD) 9-7
Doug Marrone (Buf) 6-10
Rob Chudzinski (Cle) 4-12
Bruce Arians (Ari) 10-6
49-61 (Philly – SD Playoffs)

2012:
Dennis Allen (Oak) 4-12
Mike Mularkey (Jax) 2-14
Joe Philbin (Mia) 7-9
Greg Schiano (TB) 7-9
Chuck Pagano (Indy) 11-5
31-49 (Indy Playoffs)

2011:
Ron Rivera (Car) 6-10
Pat Shurmur (Cle) 4-12
Jason Garrett (Dal) 8-8
Leslie Frazier (Minn) 3-13
Hue Jackson (Oak) 8-8
Jim Harbaugh (SF) 13-3
Mike Munchak (Tenn) 9-7

51-61 (SF Playoffs)

2010:
No new hires, Chan Gailey, Pete Carroll, Mike Shanahan.

2009:
Rex Ryan (NYJ) 9-7
Jim Caldwell (Indy) 14-2
Josh McDaniels (Den) 8-8
Todd Haley (KC) 4-12
Tom Cable (Oak) 5-11
Jim Schwartz (Det) 2-14
Raheem Morris (TB) 3-13
Steve Spagnuolo (StL) 1-15
Mike Singletary (49ers) 8-8
54-90 (Jets – Colts Playoffs)

2008:
Mike Smith (Atl) 11-5
John Harbaugh (Bal) ***** 11-5
Tony Sparano (Mia) 11-5
Jim Zorn (Wash) 8-8
41-23 (Falcons – Ravens – Dolphins Playoffs)
 

Super Bowl Notes

If you like the Patriots:
(30) - Offensively: New England averaging 30 pts per game, 1st in the league. They spread the ball around as they have four players with at least 50 catches this season (Gronk, Shane Vareen, Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell) and 8 different players who have caught a TD pass. 
But one of their most impressive stats is how well they make adjustments and how quickly it happens. The Patriots were 8th in the NFL in first quarter points scored. But in the 2nd quarter they really hit their stride…as they led the NFL in points scored in the 2nd quarter of games.

(3) – The Patriots are facing the number 1 rushing offense in football in Seattle. The good news is that the Patriots are 2-0 when they’ve faced teams with a top 5 rushing attack. The bad news is that both wins were against the Jets, who rushed for 334 yards in those two games. The Patriots total margin of victory was 3 points. 

(16) – If the Patriots protect Tom Brady, they have a great chance to win.  The Patriots have been simply brilliant when they can protect Tom Brady. In their 14 victories this season including the playoffs, the Patriots have only given up 16 sacks of Brady. If he stays clean, they have a great chance to win on Sunday. In the Patriots 4 losses, they gave up 8 sacks. 
Ponder that, 16 sacks in 14 wins. 8 sacks in 4 losses.

If you like the Seahawks:
(59) – Seattle’s blueprint hasn’t changed. They want to hold the ball and defend as few of plays as possible despite their great defense. Seattle’s defense faced the fewest plays this year, offenses had the ball for just 59 plays on average. They were 7th in time of possession and 8th in 3rd down defense.

Look at it this way, the Patriots defended 65 plays on average, by the time you reach the Super Bowl the Seahawks defense has played about a game and a half less than the Patriots defense.

(4) Seattle is middle of the road when it comes to scoring by quarter in 2014.  It’s not until the 4th quarter when they take advantage of wearing you down. Seattle scored the 4th most amount of points in the 4th quarter this season.

(10) – Russell Wilson takes down all premiere quarterbacks. Wilson is looking to improve on one of the most unique numbers in the NFL. In these premiere matchups, when Wilson has faced a quarterback who has won a Super Bowl…he is 10-0.
(3-0 vs Aaron Rodgers)
(2-0 vs Drew Brees)
(2-0 vs Peyton Manning)
(2-0 vs Eli Manning)
(1-0    vs Tom Brady)

In 7 of those 10 games, Wilson has had a higher QB rating than the opposing quarterback.

Free Agency 2015: The Case for Pernell McPhee

Falcons fans, I understand your pain.  It’s the kind of pain that typically manifests itself in a jilted lover. It makes you quietly utter things like, “never again” and “they’re all the same”.  I refer to this as R.E.S. But Falcons fans would know it as Ray Edwards Syndrome.

Ray Edwards Syndrome is characterized by ignoring NFL pass rushers in free agency that you’ve never heard of. While Falcons fans want to talk about signing Ndamukong Suh and Justin Houston, the truth is that their price tags are well beyond what the Falcons can handle.

Last year when I discussed the virtues of Lions free agent defensive end Willie Young, I was hit with a twitter-face full of R.E.S.  After a 10 sack season with the Bears, Willie Young has arrived in the NFL at the cost of just $9 million over three seasons.

If you can suspend your R.E.S long enough, let me provide you the case for Baltimore Raven Pernell McPhee.  McPhee had another strong season as a jack-of-all trades player in Baltimore. McPhee recorded 7.5 sacks, but it’s more about the versatility he provides for a defense.  Want a guy who can beat guards and centers inside as pass rushing defensive tackle?  McPhee is your guy. Want a player who has the speed and power to attack from defensive end and cause problems for the offense? McPhee is your guy.

Pernell McPhee will not be the dominant pass rusher who records 15 sacks per season.  That’s just not his game. That’s what the Falcons are hopefully drafting at 8th overall in this NFL Draft. McPhee presents a solid player who can provide a pass rush at hopefully around $28 million over four years.

When Ray Edwards received his Falcons contract in 2011, the amount of suitors for his services were lacking.  Just something to ponder as Pernell McPhee will get a contract in the early days of free agency this year.